285
FXUS62 KTBW 291811
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
211 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

A moderately amplified upper level pattern continues over the CONUS
with upper ridging extending northward through the central U.S. and
broad upper troughing digging south through the mid-Atlantic states.
This pattern becomes more amplified over the next couple of days as
the trough moves into the western Atlantic and upper ridging moves
into the Ohio River Valley and then gradually over the eastern
seaboard over the weekend.

On the surface, a weak cold front washes out and pushes
southeastward as weak high pressure builds in over the southeast
U.S. By Thursday, broad high pressure centered over the central
Great Lakes ridges southward through the Ohio River Valley and into
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will help usher in some slightly
drier air with PWAT values ranging between 1.0-1.4 inches starting
Thursday and continuing through the end of the week and into the
weekend. By Saturday, the high moves over the mid-Atlantic states
and will produce a wind shift to a more easterly direction through
the weekend and into next week.

With the slightly drier air over the region, you can expect only a
20-40 percent chance of showers and storms each day through the end
of the week and into the weekend with the highest chances over the
interior and southern Florida. Unfortunately the hot temperatures
will continue through the forecast period with daytime highs topping
out in the mid to upper 80`s along the coast and mid to upper 90`s
over the interior. Overnight lows remain in the upper 60`s to mid
70`s. The drier air will bring the dew points down into the 60`s for
most of the period allowing for slightly more comfortable humidity
values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions with WNW winds around 8-13 knots with higher gusts
expected this afternoon. Will hold off mentioning any weather at all
terminals at this time as it appears most rain chances will remain
over south Florida away from all the terminals. Winds become light
and variable once again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Weak high pressure builds in over the southeast U.S. through the end
of the week. This will produce north-northwest through north-
northeast winds 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less. Rain
chances remain on the low side (20-40 percent) through the period.
By Saturday, the high pressure moves off the Carolina coastline and
will bring a shift in winds to a more easterly direction around 15
knots through the weekend. This will also produce an uptick in the
seas to around 3 feet on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure dominates the weather with minimal rain chances (20-40
percent) through the period. A drier airmass will hold over the area
through the period, with relative humidity dropping to critically
low levels across some areas each afternoon. However, minimal 20
foot wind speeds are expected so we should not need any Red Flag
Warnings. High dispersion indices are expected each of the next
couple of afternoons. No other fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  95  76  93 /   0  20  10  30
FMY  75  96  75  95 /  10  40  20  40
GIF  72  97  72  95 /   0  20  10  40
SRQ  74  94  76  93 /   0  20  10  30
BKV  66  97  67  95 /   0  20   0  30
SPG  79  94  80  92 /   0  10  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Close