Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
763 FXUS62 KTBW 271240 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 840 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 840 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Dry high pressure will hold across the region today with southwest to west flow in place. Moisture remains limited with morning TBW sounding only indicating precipitable water around 1.1 inches again so the chance of seeing a shower or storm will remain near zero. The southwest to west winds will keep coastal areas slightly cooler in the upper 80s to around 90, while inland locations will once again climb into the middle and upper 90s with a couple of record highs possible. Forecast looks good with no adjustments needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 840 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected through early tonight, then some areas of MVFR ceilings could develop across the Tampa Bay area ahead of a weakening cool front. Light winds will become southwest to west and increase to 10 to 13 knots this afternoon, then diminish to around 5 knots later this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Broad high pressure aloft is continuing to ridge from the Gulf of Mexico across the Florida Peninsula today as surface high pressure ridges from the Atlantic across the southern Florida Peninsula. This stacked ridging will keep warm and dry conditions in place, with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s over the interior, and low to mid 90s along the coast. Apart from the heat, the only weather concern will be for some patchy fog this morning, mainly over the Nature Coast counties. On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will dig into the southeastern US, sweeping a surface front into northern Florida and stalling out. Building moisture to the south of this boundary will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, although temperatures will remain above normal through the week. Another shortwave will rotate through the eastern US on Friday, deepening the longwave trough and finally giving the stalled frontal boundary enough momentum to push south into the Florida Peninsula by Friday evening. This will bump up rain chances again on Friday and drop temperatures slightly for the weekend...although temperatures will still run near to slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 326 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 High pressure will hold across the waters today and tonight, then shift east on Tuesday as a weak front approaches the northern Gulf of Mexico. This front will bring chances of rain Tuesday, but gradient winds are forecast to remain less than 15 knots outside of thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will then build in for the rest of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 326 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Relative humidity will briefly drop to around or just below 35 percent this afternoon in some spots, mainly over the interior. However, wind speeds will not be high enough to cause Red Flag conditions. Humidity will increase slightly on Tuesday. High dispersion indices are expected this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 79 92 78 / 0 10 30 10 FMY 95 77 95 76 / 0 10 30 20 GIF 97 74 96 74 / 0 0 40 10 SRQ 92 78 92 77 / 0 0 20 10 BKV 94 72 93 70 / 0 10 40 10 SPG 91 81 90 80 / 0 10 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Fleming DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley