Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
195 FXUS62 KTBW 251815 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Upper level ridging and surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico continue to dominate the weather pattern through the holiday weekend. This will keep a predominant westerly flow over the region. This will translate to most of the area remaining rain-free. Any rain that does develop will likely fire up over the interior away from the coast during the afternoon hours. By Monday evening, upper troughing and a cold front moves through the southeast U.S. and will nudge the ridge and surface high slightly southward. As the trough and frontal boundary move across northern Florida, some increasing chances of showers will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the highest rain chances will remain over the interior. The front will stall out across northern Florida for much of next week, keeping west central and southwest Florida in a continued predominant westerly flow. You can expect a 20-40 percent chance of showers and storms through next week with the highest chances over the interior and southeast Florida. Unfortunately the hot temperatures will continue through the forecast period with daytime highs topping out in the mid to upper 80`s along the coast and mid to upper 90`s over the interior. Overnight lows remain in the upper 60`s to mid 70`s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions with WNW winds around 8-13 knots continue through the afternoon. Will hold off mentioning any weather at all terminals at this time as it appears most rain chances will remain over the interior east of the terminals. Winds become light and variable once again overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 High pressure will remain in place across the eastern gulf waters with the ridge axis shifting south of the area for the extended weekend. This will keep a light westerly flow over the gulf waters through the period. Winds remain 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less. A weak front will move through the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a few showers and storms possible with it. No headlines are expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 High pressure dominates the weather through the holiday weekend keeping conditions mostly dry, except some scattered storms possible inland this afternoon. Relative humidity generally remains above critical levels, but some locations inland may have an hour or two of critical levels in the early afternoon, but winds will remain below 15 mph, so no Red Flag will be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 91 76 92 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 74 93 74 94 / 10 10 0 10 GIF 73 97 73 96 / 10 10 0 10 SRQ 73 92 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 67 94 67 94 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 78 90 78 90 / 0 0 0 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT...Close