813
FXUS62 KTBW 290728
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
328 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

In the upper levels, a long wave trough over eastern Canada and the
northeastern US will gradually deepen through the rest of the week
as a shortwave rounds the base of the trough. At the surface, the
recent cold front will gradually dissipate as it lingers over the
Florida Peninsula today and Thursday, with drier air filling in
across the forecast area. This will lead to only isolated afternoon
showers or storms expected over southwest Florida each day.
Temperatures will remain warm through Friday, with highs in the mid
to perhaps upper 90s over the interior, and upper 80s to low 90s
along the coast.

On Friday, as the upper level trough deepens along the eastern
seaboard, a backdoor cold front will move southwest through Florida
and stall south of Florida during the weekend and early next week.
This will drop temperatures a few degrees to near to slightly
above normal levels, and increase atmospheric moisture. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms will be possible each afternoon
Friday through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Some patchy fog will be possible this morning, but is largely
forecast to remain over the Nature Coast and north of area TAF
sites. VFR conditions should then hold through at least the
morning. Isolated showers and storms are expected this afternoon,
with the greatest chances over southwest Florida, near KRSW and
KFMY, however, rain chances are not high enough to mention in the
TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure will build back into the waters from the north
through the rest of the week, then shift east into the Atlantic
this weekend. Rain chances will increase Friday through the
weekend as a weak cold front pushes south through the waters.
Winds and seas will generally remain less than headline criteria
outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Some patchy fog will be possible over the Nature Coast this morning.
A dry airmass will hold over the area today and Thursday, with
relative humidity dropping to critically low levels across much of
the area each afternoon. However, 20 foot wind speeds are not
forecast to be fast enough to cause Red Flag conditions. High
dispersion indices are expected each of the next couple of
afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  95  76  95  76 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  95  75  96  75 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  97  72  97  72 /  10   0  10  10
SRQ  94  74  94  76 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  96  66  97  67 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  93  79  94  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Fleming