684
FXUS62 KTBW 020646
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
246 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough is expected to move over the region today
with additional energy to combine with the afternoon seabreeze
boundaries to produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms areawide
with highest PoPs in coastal areas from SW into S Tampa Bay area.

W Atlantic surface high pressure to remain in place and weaken
next week with mean layer moisture increasing. Models have backed
off on upper ridging and now only briefing nudging into the region
Tuesday before general troughiness returns aloft mid to late week
with next upper trough slowly moving thru the Eastern US.

This set up would allow for a more typical early summer scattered
afternoon/evening storms and seabreeze pattern for much needed
rainfall. But this solution carries some uncertainty with the
ongoing persistent drought pattern and NBM wet bias to keep PoPs
trimmed a bit and will see how the models progress in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
VFR conditions and easterly winds all areas this morning into
early afternoon hours. Aft 18Z the Gulf seabreeze is expected to
move inland and produce isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA to keep
VCTS in the forecast thru 00Z as exact placement of activity
remains uncertain.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure is expected to weaken and move into the Western Atlantic
through the early part of the week with generally light winds except
during the occasionally gusty evening easterly surges. The afternoon
Gulf seabreeze is expected to move inland and produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms daily that move back towards
the coast in the evenings.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will weaken and remain over the region into next week
with the warm conditions continuing along with a slow increase in
low level moisture. The afternoon Gulf seabreeze is expected to
move inland and produce isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  75  92  76 /  30  30  40  20
FMY  94  73  93  74 /  60  40  60  40
GIF  93  72  93  72 /  40  30  50  10
SRQ  94  74  93  74 /  40  40  40  30
BKV  93  68  94  69 /  30  20  40  10
SPG  92  78  92  79 /  40  40  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RJD