846
FXUS62 KTBW 011752
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
152 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

We are seeing some breezier easterly today as high pressure in the
Mid Atlantic states nudges a little farther south increasing our
pressure gradient. This has helped to increase our easterly winds
which has resulted in slightly cooler air compared to our work week.
However, the high pressure is also giving us more subsidence which
in turn will keep showers very limited across the area.

As we go through our Sunday the high start to push into the Atlantic
on the surface while a weak upper level trough looks to push over
the area. This will cause our moisture to increase and give us more
lift which in turn will increase our afternoon and evening shower
and thunderstorms chances. Right now it looks like Sunday might be
our best chance of rain in the next 7 days.

The upper level energy will exit the area by Monday however with the
high pressure in the Atlantic moving even farther way we will see an
increase in moisture and a more typical seabreeze pattern setting
up. However coverage of storms do look a little less they what we
are use to seeing during the summer months with PoPs hovering
around 30 to 40 percent each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with mainly easterly
winds that will gust up to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon.
Conditions will be drier today so kept thunderstorms out of the
TAFs however a shower or two can not be ruled out in Southwest
Florida Terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Strong ridging over the area will once again cause nightly
increase in winds tonight with 15 to 20 knots possible across the
Gulf. We will see those winds decrease once again in the afternoon
tomorrow but continue out of the east. Ridging will move farther way
for our work week which will result in winds generally staying at or
below 10 knots out of the east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Windy and dry conditions continue today, however we will see some
increase in moisture and higher rain shower chances for Sunday and
into early next week. RH will slowly rise and we should stay above
critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  74  91  75 /  20  20  40  20
FMY  94  72  93  73 /  20  20  60  40
GIF  90  69  92  72 /  10   0  50  10
SRQ  93  71  91  73 /  20  20  40  30
BKV  92  68  91  67 /  10  10  40  20
SPG  91  77  90  77 /  20  20  40  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis