195
FXUS62 KTBW 251815
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
215 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico continue to dominate the weather pattern through the
holiday weekend. This will keep a predominant westerly flow over the
region. This will translate to most of the area remaining rain-free.
Any rain that does develop will likely fire up over the interior
away from the coast during the afternoon hours. By Monday evening,
upper troughing and a cold front moves through the southeast U.S.
and will nudge the ridge and surface high slightly southward. As the
trough and frontal boundary move across northern Florida, some
increasing chances of showers will be possible on Tuesday and
Wednesday. However, the highest rain chances will remain over the
interior. The front will stall out across northern Florida for much
of next week, keeping west central and southwest Florida in a
continued predominant westerly flow. You can expect a 20-40 percent
chance of showers and storms through next week with the highest
chances over the interior and southeast Florida. Unfortunately the
hot temperatures will continue through the forecast period with
daytime highs topping out in the mid to upper 80`s along the coast
and mid to upper 90`s over the interior. Overnight lows remain in
the upper 60`s to mid 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions with WNW winds around 8-13 knots continue through the
afternoon. Will hold off mentioning any weather at all terminals at
this time as it appears most rain chances will remain over the
interior east of the terminals. Winds become light and variable once
again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

High pressure will remain in place across the eastern gulf waters
with the ridge axis shifting south of the area for the extended
weekend. This will keep a light westerly flow over the gulf waters
through the period. Winds remain 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or
less. A weak front will move through the area on Tuesday and
Wednesday, with a few showers and storms possible with it. No
headlines are expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

High pressure dominates the weather through the holiday weekend
keeping conditions mostly dry, except some scattered storms possible
inland this afternoon. Relative humidity generally remains above
critical levels, but some locations inland may have an hour or two
of critical levels in the early afternoon, but winds will remain
below 15 mph, so no Red Flag will be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  76  92 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  74  93  74  94 /  10  10   0  10
GIF  73  97  73  96 /  10  10   0  10
SRQ  73  92  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  94  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  78  90  78  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...Close