635
FXUS62 KTBW 031851
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
251 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

High pressure remains just to the northeast today leading to light
easterly flow. The morning sounding showed 1.74 inch of PWs which
continues the upward trend of moisture in the region. That moisture
will bode well for rain and thunderstorm chances along the sea
breeze this afternoon. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
already developing just inland with the boundary. POPs for today
reach into the 50-60 percent range later this afternoon and into
the early evening time frame. A similar pattern is expected
tomorrow with late afternoon/evening sea breeze thunderstorm
activity with POPs around 40-50 percent. Today will be the coolest
day of the upcoming period with afternoon highs topping out in
the upper 80s to lower 90s which is right around average for this
time of year. The high pressure will continue to dominate the
weather pattern for the next several days as our temperatures will
continue to climb back into record territory.

An upper level trough will begin to sweep across the eastern half of
the country by mid week. This trough will shift the ridge further
south which will turn our winds out of the west. Rain chances for
the end of the week will be situated more along the interior
portions of the state rather than the immediate coast. This pattern
shift will do nothing to give us relief from the heat as
temperatures later this week and into the weekend will remain in the
middle to upper 90s. The increase in moisture will lead to little
relief from the heat overnight as temperatures will remain in the
middle 70s. If you`re working outdoors or participating in
recreational activities outside, remember to stay hydrated and take
breaks from the sun.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions continue for all sites. Winds have mostly turned on
shore and a few showers have begun to develop. Thunderstorms will
begin impacting terminals over the next few hours, generally after
20Z and should begin shifting out of the area by 00-01Z. Light
easterly winds are expected overnight and into Tuesday morning once
again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

High pressure will hold north of the area allowing moisture to
increase across the area over the next few days. Easterly winds
prevail through mid week becoming onshore each afternoon with the
sea breeze. As a result, showers and storms should develop over the
land each afternoon/evening, drifting into the Gulf later in the
evening and early overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Though high pressure dominates the pattern, moisture has begun to
return to the area leading to RH values well above critical
thresholds. Light easterly flow, with an afternoon on shore
component, will remain light the next couple days. The high pressure
will shift south later this week turning our winds out of the west.
Daily scattered afternoon and early evening rain and thunderstorms
chances are expected with the sea breeze.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  94  77  94 /  20  50  20  40
FMY  74  95  75  95 /  50  60  30  60
GIF  71  95  73  96 /  10  40  10  60
SRQ  74  94  76  94 /  40  40  30  40
BKV  67  95  69  95 /  10  40  10  40
SPG  78  92  79  92 /  40  50  30  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery