399
FXUS62 KTBW 031136
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
736 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions this morning with light easterly flow expected. Winds
will turn onshore this afternoon and increase slightly.
Thunderstorms are expected with the sea breeze this afternoon,
generally after 20Z and should begin shifting out of the area by
01Z. Light easterly winds are expected overnight once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A few stubborn showers remain several miles offshore in the
southern waters, otherwise, just another warm and humid morning in
paradise. Meanwhile, ridge of high pressure to remain just northeast
of the area today and Tuesday keeping east to southeast flow in
place. This set up will allow moisture to increase area-wide,
which supporting showers and thunderstorms each afternoon along
the sea breeze collisions. The highest chances will be for areas
along the west coast, mostly south of the I-4 corridor. Cloud
coverage today should help temperatures to stay in the low 90s,
which would make it the "coolest day" on the forecast. That might
not be the case on Tuesday, as pockets of drier air may limit
convection and highs to climb back up into the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

By mid week, an upper level disturbance begins to approach the
region pushing the aforementioned ridge south. As a result, winds
become westerly supporting convection over the interior and east of
the CWA. Then, model guidance bring another boundary on Saturday,
but there is not great agreement at this time. The one parameter
that they seem to all agree on is the afternoon highs remaining in
the mid to upper 90s. Additionally, very muggy conditions are
possible during the second half of the week as dewpoints stay in
the 70s...not very comfortable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  75  95  77 /  60  60  50  30
FMY  92  73  94  75 /  70  60  60  40
GIF  92  71  95  73 /  60  30  50  10
SRQ  92  73  95  75 /  60  60  50  40
BKV  92  67  96  69 /  60  40  50  20
SPG  91  78  93  80 /  60  60  50  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...ADavis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery