987
FXXX10 KWNP 290031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 29-May 31 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 29-May 31 2024

             May 29       May 30       May 31
00-03UT       0.67         3.00         1.67
03-06UT       1.67         2.67         1.33
06-09UT       2.00         2.00         1.33
09-12UT       2.00         1.67         1.33
12-15UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       4.00         1.67         1.33
18-21UT       4.00         2.00         1.67
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         1.67

Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) storming on 29 May with any
shock arrival from the 27 May CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 29-May 31 2024

              May 29  May 30  May 31
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 29-May 31 2024

              May 29        May 30        May 31
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           30%

Rationale: (R1-2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) are likely, while a
chance remains for isolated (R3/Strong Radio Blackouts) through 31 May.