Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
169 FXXX10 KWNP 011231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 01 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 01-Jun 03 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 01-Jun 03 2024 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 00-03UT 2.33 2.67 1.67 03-06UT 1.33 2.00 1.33 06-09UT 1.33 2.00 1.33 09-12UT 1.33 2.00 1.33 12-15UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.00 2.00 1.33 18-21UT 5.67 (G2) 2.00 1.67 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 1.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 01 Jun due to CME activity. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2024 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 S1 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 01-03 Jun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 01 2024 0848 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2024 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 35% 35% 35% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong) or greater activity, over 01-03 Jun.