589
FXXX10 KWNP 050031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 05-Jun 07 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 05-Jun 07 2024

             Jun 05       Jun 06       Jun 07
00-03UT       1.33         1.33         1.67
03-06UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
06-09UT       2.67         1.33         1.33
09-12UT       2.33         1.33         1.67
12-15UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       2.33         1.67         1.67
18-21UT       3.00         1.67         1.33
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         1.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 05-Jun 07 2024

              Jun 05  Jun 06  Jun 07
S1 or greater   20%     25%     25%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 07 Jun, primarily due
to the flare potential of Region 3697.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 04 2024 0631 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 05-Jun 07 2024

              Jun 05        Jun 06        Jun 07
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           20%

Rationale: Occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio
Blackouts) are likely, with a chance for isolated X-class flare activity
(R3 Strong) on 05-07 Jun.