271
FXUS65 KTFX 071714
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1120 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak cold front will continue moving southward through the
region today through early Sunday, bringing scattered clouds and
slightly cooler temperatures, primarily for northern areas. The
trend for mostly dry conditions are expected until a passing
weather disturbance brings a better chance showers and
thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.Update...

A cold front has pushed south through the plains of Central
Montana as of this update, and will continue to advance south
through the valleys of Central and Southwest Montana through the
afternoon hours today. Main impact from this front will be gusty
north winds for a couple of hours with and behind its passage, in
addition to cooler temperatures. High temperatures over the
plains of North Central and North Central Montana will be some 10
to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, with the valleys of Central
and North Central Montana being within 5 degrees of yesterday`s
highs. While a few light sprinkles/showers can`t be ruled out in
wake of the cold front, especially in the mountains, predominately
dry conditions will persist across the Northern Rockies through
today. The on-going forecast is handling the passage of this cold
front well. - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...

07/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours as upper
level ridging remains over the area. Watch for a few SHRA over the
higher terrain of SW MT near the MT/ID border, but no impacts to
terminals are expected at this time. Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 526 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024/

A northwesterly flow aloft will persist through the first half of
the weekend, while a cold front slowly moves southward. This will
initially bring slightly cooler temperatures, northerly breezes,
and variable cloudiness to northern areas before the front moves
deeper into the southwest and cools things down there Saturday
night into Sunday. Aside from an isolated storm or two over the
southwest, generally dry weather is expected until later Sunday
afternoon and evening when a passing shortwave begins to exert an
influence over the Northern Rockies. Scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity will expand in a southwest to northeast
fashion, peaking in coverage on Monday. Timing is not very
favorable for strong to severe storms at this time, but forecast
soundings for Monday do indicate that gusty winds may accompany
some storms with modest instability and inverted V profiles,
mostly over Central and Southwest MT.

Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with transient ridging
moving in on Tuesday and boosting temperatures to around 10 to 15
degrees above average before a more zonal sets up for the mid-week
period and cools things down closer to average and increases
winds. Aside from a few afternoon and evening
showers/thunderstorms, mostly dry conditions can be expected
through early Friday. There is some concern for low relative
humidity and gusty winds on Tuesday and Wednesday, although
grassland fuels still have some moisture to give for now. Most
ensemble suites highlight a Pacific trough bringing unsettled
conditions for next weekend, but there a significant disagreements
regarding position, timing, and depth. - RCG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  45  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  65  42  66  40 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  80  47  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  76  43  75  43 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  81  47  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  69  45  70  43 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  68  45  68  42 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls