Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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178 FXUS65 KTFX 060239 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 839 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather is expected through the end of the week as upper level ridging begins to set up across the West, with just a few isolated showers over the higher terrain south of I-90. Sunday will see showers and thunderstorms possibly become more widespread as a system pushes through, but the heat will return early next week. && .UPDATE... No update needed to the ongoing overnight forecast period. Temperatures and winds are trending as forecast. Mostly clear skies will allow temperatures at lower elevations to mostly fall into the 50s by midnight as winds become light and less gusty, then well into the 40s by morning. Mostly sunny conditions with fairly light winds will persist through Thursday, allowing temperatures to warm mostly into the mid 70s to lower 80s at lower elevations. -Coulston && .AVIATION... 06/00Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail during this TAF period with mostly few to scattered high-level clouds around due to an upper-level ridge moving into the area above North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. For the KBZN and KWYS terminals winds will gust to 18 - 22 kts for the first two hours of this TAF period before decreasing for the rest of the TAF period. For the KGTF, KHVR, and KCTB terminals winds will gust to 23 - 26 kts for the first two hours of this TAF period before decreasing for the middle of this TAF period and increasing at the end of the TAF period. For the KLWT and KHLN terminals winds will gust up to 27 kts during the first four hours of this TAF period before decreasing for the rest of the TAF period. At the very beginning of this TAF period there will be isolated instances of mountain wave turbulence. -IG Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024/ Key Points: -Above average temperatures are expected through the end of the week -Chance for some showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly across Southwestern Montana -Even warmer temperatures are looking likely next week, with a 75% chance of temperatures at least 10 warmer than average Through Saturday Winds will continue to diminish across North Central Montana through the afternoon as the upper level jet streak that was above the area continues to push eastward away from the area. While it will still be a bit breezy across all of North Central and Southwestern Montana today, expect wind gusts to top out around 25-35 mph across the area, with a few gusts to 45 mph around Martinsdale and in Northern Blaine County. Any winds will quickly decrease after sunset as the inversion sets up, keeping any wind above the ground. For Thursday through Saturday, upper level ridging will build across the Western US, which will keep temperatures above average, especially across the Southwest, with mostly clear skies save for a few showers that manage to pop up over the higher terrain south of I-90. Sunday through next Wednesday Clouds will increase through the day on Sunday as moisture works into the area ahead of a weak disturbance that will ride over the ridge that will be firmly entrenched over the Western CONUS. As this disturbance pushes into the area, expect a few showers and thunderstorms to develop over and move into Southwestern Montana before they push to the northeast. Modeled atmospheric profiles suggest that these thunderstorms could be capable of producing some localized heavy rainfall, along with some isolated small hail and gusty winds. At the moment, I dont think that widespread severe weather will be an issue, but it is a situation that will bear some watching, especially as models remain fairly uncertain as to how exactly these showers and storms will evolve and how far north they will make it (which is not uncommon this far out with a convectively driven event). Beyond Sunday, upper level ridging will remain the dominant weather feature across the Western CONUS, which will generally keep us warmer than average as the heat nudges into the Northern Rockies. With that said, models seem to show some agreement that some disturbances will move over this ridge and across Southern Canada and the Northern US, which will give us a few chances for showers and thunderstorms through next week. Ludwig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 42 80 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 40 75 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 47 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 43 82 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 40 76 45 78 / 0 0 10 20 DLN 45 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 10 HVR 44 77 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 42 74 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls