542
FXUS65 KTFX 052335
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
535 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...Updated Aviation Section...


.SYNOPSIS...

Warm and dry weather is expected through the end of the week as
upper level ridging begins to set up across the West, with just a
few isolated showers over the higher terrain south of I-90. Sunday
will see showers and thunderstorms possibly become more widespread
as a system pushes through, but the heat will return early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

-Above average temperatures are expected through the end of the
week

-Chance for some showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening, mainly across Southwestern Montana

-Even warmer temperatures are looking likely next week, with a
75% chance of temperatures at least 10 warmer than average

Through Saturday Winds will continue to diminish across North
Central Montana through the afternoon as the upper level jet
streak that was above the area continues to push eastward away
from the area. While it will still be a bit breezy across all of
North Central and Southwestern Montana today, expect wind gusts to
top out around 25-35 mph across the area, with a few gusts to 45
mph around Martinsdale and in Northern Blaine County. Any winds
will quickly decrease after sunset as the inversion sets up,
keeping any wind above the ground.

For Thursday through Saturday, upper level ridging will build
across the Western US, which will keep temperatures above average,
especially across the Southwest, with mostly clear skies save for
a few showers that manage to pop up over the higher terrain south
of I-90.

Sunday through next Wednesday Clouds will increase through the
day on Sunday as moisture works into the area ahead of a weak
disturbance that will ride over the ridge that will be firmly
entrenched over the Western CONUS. As this disturbance pushes into
the area, expect a few showers and thunderstorms to develop over
and move into Southwestern Montana before they push to the
northeast. Modeled atmospheric profiles suggest that these
thunderstorms could be capable of producing some localized heavy
rainfall, along with some isolated small hail and gusty winds. At
the moment, I dont think that widespread severe weather will be
an issue, but it is a situation that will bear some watching,
especially as models remain fairly uncertain as to how exactly
these showers and storms will evolve and how far north they will
make it (which is not uncommon this far out with a convectively
driven event).

Beyond Sunday, upper level ridging will remain the dominant
weather feature across the Western CONUS, which will generally
keep us warmer than average as the heat nudges into the Northern
Rockies. With that said, models seem to show some agreement that
some disturbances will move over this ridge and across Southern
Canada and the Northern US, which will give us a few chances for
showers and thunderstorms through next week. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...

06/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail during this TAF period with mostly few
to scattered high-level clouds around due to an upper-level ridge
moving into the area above North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. For the KBZN and KWYS terminals winds will gust to 18 - 22
kts for the first two hours of this TAF period before decreasing for
the rest of the TAF period. For the KGTF, KHVR, and KCTB terminals
winds will gust to 23 - 26 kts for the first two hours of this TAF
period before decreasing for the middle of this TAF period and
increasing at the end of the TAF period. For the KLWT and KHLN
terminals winds will gust up to 27 kts during the first four hours
of this TAF period before decreasing for the rest of the TAF period.
At the very beginning of this TAF period there will be isolated
instances of mountain wave turbulence. -IG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  80  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  40  75  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  47  85  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  43  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  40  76  45  78 /   0   0  10  20
DLN  45  84  51  84 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  44  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  42  74  47  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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