Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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943 FXUS65 KTFX 032007 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 207 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered rain showers continue and a few thunderstorms this evening across Central and Southwest Montana with primary concern being gusty winds. Strong winds tonight through Wednesday. Dry conditions and warm afternoon high temperatures Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today through Wednesday night...Upper level troughing continues across the state today bringing unsettled weather conditions through tomorrow. A cold front from the Pacific Northwest continues to move across the state this evening. Scattered light rain showers across Central and Southwest Montana, and along the Rocky Mountain Front continues through this evening. A few thunderstorms have potential to develop this evening across Southwest Montana from a Bozeman to Lewistown line into Central Montana as the front pushes through. Primary concerns for any developed thunderstorms are gusty winds. Scattered rain shower and thunderstorm activity diminishes between 6 pm and 9 pm this evening. Along the Hi-Line, there`s a 30 to 40 percent probability of a rain shower coming down from Canada between midnight and 3 am. Otherwise, conditions become drier this evening and strong winds reaching warning criteria start along the Rocky Mountain Front into North Central Montana. We are strongly advising limiting outdoor recreation between tonight and Wednesday along the Rocky Mountain Front as wind probabilities are high (greater than 75 percent) for wind gusts reaching over 65 mph periodically during this timeframe. High profile vehicles will have difficulty traveling over mountain passes due to these strong winds. High Wind Warnings continue through Wednesday for the Rocky Mountain Front. For everywhere else for the High Wind Warnings, timing is still on track to start this evening for tonight into tomorrow morning and continue through the Wednesday morning hours. We held off on including Helena as latest probabilities are still not supporting high wind criteria. It`ll still be windy nevertheless. As the upper level trough departs tomorrow, upper level ridging builds in for Wednesday with dry and windy conditions, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front Wednesday morning into the afternoon and across the eastern portion of North Central and Central Montana. Thursday through this upcoming weekend...Ensemble model guidance is still in support for upper level ridging to continue during this timeframe. Drier conditions are favored for our region under surface high pressure. Beyond Sunday remains uncertain on whether upper level ridging continues or begins to move out and upper level troughing moves in from the west. The Climate Prediction Center has our region in likely above (60-70% probability) of above normal temperatures for this weekend into early next week. This could mean we see temperatures 2 degrees above normal or 10 degrees in some locations. Our normal high temperatures this time of year (middle of June) is between 75 and 80 degrees, with the exception of higher mountainous terrain where it`s cooler. We`ll continue to monitor ensemble model trends for heat risk potential for this upcoming weekend as well as when upper level ridging will begin to move. Webb && .AVIATION... 03/18Z TAF Period Primary concern for this afternoon and early evening will be convective showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a Pacific cold front. Although there will be little in the way of lightning and mostly VFR conditions, stronger upper level winds and cold air advection aloft increase the chances for showers transferring wind gusts in excess of 35 kts to the surface. This will be most likely to occur over locations south and east of a KHLN to KHVR line where there is around a 40 to 70% chance for gusts over 30 kts. Strong westerly flow moves in behind the cold front with winds initially increasing tonight along the Rocky Mountain Front/central ranges and their adjacent eastern plains. Very windy conditions are then expected over much of Central/North-central MT on Tuesday. Expect mountain wave activity to increase along with instances of low level wind shear. - RCG Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 44 67 47 71 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 41 61 43 67 / 10 0 10 0 HLN 44 69 51 76 / 10 10 10 0 BZN 38 70 49 77 / 60 10 0 0 WYS 36 61 42 73 / 80 10 0 0 DLN 39 67 48 78 / 20 10 0 0 HVR 46 71 48 71 / 40 10 0 0 LWT 39 67 46 68 / 40 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Wednesday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains- Meagher County Valleys-Northern High Plains-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front- Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass. High Wind Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to noon MDT Wednesday for Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Hill County-Northern Blaine County-Western and Central Chouteau County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls