624
FXUS63 KTOP 102302
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
602 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River flooding is coming to an end across areas south of I-70,
  still exercise caution in recently flooded areas.

- Nice today but warming up quickly through the week.

- Mostly dry conditions for most in northeastern Kansas over the
  next few days with chances for storms Thursday evening
  (20-30%) and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Another beautiful afternoon is underway across northeastern Kansas
today as surface ridging overhead has given way to clear skies,
light winds and low humidity. Temperatures this afternoon have
warmed into the low 80s area wide in response to the ample
insolation, and will warm a few degrees further throughout the
remainder of the afternoon.

Overnight tonight, the surface and 850mb ridge axes shift east of
the area and return winds to the south ushering in warmer and
moisture rich air. A wave passing over the northern Plains Tuesday
afternoon will try and push a weak frontal boundary through
northeast KS, but confidence continues to decrease in many areas
receiving any precipitation with this. Majority of lift and upper-
level support is much further north in the Dakotas and Nebraska, and
given the very modest low-level moisture availability, it might be
difficult to produce much in terms of showers and storms along a
boundary that continues to diffuse itself on its way into Kansas.
Continued to reduce PoPs in north-central KS to replicate this
thinking, still holding on to a 20% chance for a isolated shower or
non-severe storm to develop.

By Wednesday and Thursday, increasing mid-level heights and
downsloping southwesterly low-level flow will quickly warm afternoon
high temperatures into the mid to upper 90s. Some areas across
central Kansas will flirt with triple digits both afternoons. Heat
indicies will also need to be monitored Thursday as persistent
moisture advection within southerly flow will push 70 degree dew
points into the area. 100-105 degree heat indicies could be realized
in isolated spots by peak heating Thursday. In addition to the heat,
an upper-level wave passing to the northeast will push a frontal
boundary across the area near peak heating Thursday afternoon with
the threat for severe storm development along the front. Ample
amounts of instability, shear ranging from 30-40 knots and steep ML
lapse rates will be present in northeast Kansas ahead of the
boundary. Guidance does show some capping that does decrease
confidence in how widespread convection can become, but if
convergence along the boundary can overcome this, a few to several
strong/severe storms could develop Thursday afternoon and evening.
Current guidance depicts the best convergence along the front and
least amount of MLCIN further towards northeastern KS, northwest MO,
and near the surface low in IA. This is where confidence is higher
for severe weather threat Thursday evening.

Beyond Thursday, temperatures will remain warm, topping out in the
90s into early next week. More chances for storms return Friday
night into Saturday and again Saturday into Sunday with a cutoff
shortwave trough moving out of the desert southwest, although
confidence does not remain high with the coverage and exact timing
of precipitation over this timerange. Continue to monitor the
forecast over the coming days as an active weather pattern might be
in store later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions prevail with FEW to SCT high clouds. No aviation
hazards forecast. Winds veer to the SSW into the morning with
minimal gusts into the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Drake