248
FXUS63 KTOP 090535
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1235 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storm chances (20%) in far east-central KS this afternoon
with heavier rain and storms later this evening and overnight.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be possible tonight, mainly south of I-
70 with a few storms strong to severe. Damaging winds will be the
main concern, but hail up to an inch in diameter will also be
possible.

- Drier and warm over the next week with small chances for
  precipitation Tuesday and again late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A cooler but more humid afternoon is underway today as temperatures
have crept into the 80s areas wide; low 80s in northern KS and
upper 80s in the southern portion of the warning area. This
gradient can be attributed to a slow, southward-moving surface
boundary that has finally progressed its way south of I-70. This
boundary will continue to slide south as an associated surface
low tracks south of the area. Zooming out, an upper level
disturbance entering the Rockies will become the focal point
for convective initation this afternoon across the lee of the
Rockies. With low-level moisture pooled up along the
aforementioned frontal boundary from Missouri through Colorado,
convective initiation along the boundary will also be possible
as afternoon heating has resulted in MUCAPE values approaching
4000 J/kg in far southeastern Kansas. Deep shear will also be
present across the plains as a 45-50 knot 500 mb jet traverses
over Kansas. If convergence along the south-moving boundary can
overcome residual MLCIN, a strong to severe storm could develop
quickly with a damaging wind and hail threat being the main
hazards. For our warning area, areas that have the best chance
(20%) of seeing an isolated storm develop would be in far east-
central Kansas over the next few hours before the main surface
boundary exits into far southeast Kansas.

By this evening, congealed convection across western Kansas will
track east/southeast towards the area increasing PoPs again for
areas mainly along and south of I-70. Current thinking and latest
guidance continues to track the strongest and highest QPF south of
our area, following the higher theta-e and instability gradients
draped from west-central KS to southeast KS. Elevated convection
should begin to move in around midnight and track due east into the
early morning hours of Sunday. With low-level moisture not
anticipated to move quickly and starting to pool in southeastern
Kansas, PWs overnight jump between 1.5-2.25 inches for areas south
of I-70. While a strong to severe storm capable of a damaging wind
gust or 1 inch hail cannot be ruled out overnight, the main concern
may point to localized heavy rainfall. This will especially become
true with training of thunderstorms where areas could quickly pick
up several inches of rain.

Precipitation moves out of the area by Sunday morning with clouds
scattering out through the day. Surface ridging builds in from the
north, keeping the area dry with temperatures generally in the upper
70s and low 80s.

The upcoming week will see drier and warmer weather, especially by
Thursday where highs could approach the mid to upper 90s. A few
small chances for rain move across the Plains Tuesday and
Thursday/Friday with Tuesday being the best chance for rain
(30%).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The main challenge in the short-term is how far north
thunderstorms will get and whether those will impact terminals
overnight. Have included a TEMPO at KFOE and KMHK for the most
likely timeframe for thunderstorm impacts. Radar trends will be
monitored and amendments will be made if necessary. Otherwise,
VFR is expected with easterly winds around 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Teefey