978
FXUS63 KTOP 080824
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances continue later this afternoon and tonight with
  locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Small precipitation chances next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery was showing a
shortwave trough moving into western Missouri with a upstream
perturbation moving into western Kansas. Another short wave trough
was moving across Utah and Western Wyoming at 07Z. A complex of
storms continues to move off to the east and southeast of the area
with precipitation ending as of 0715Z.

For today, a frontal boundary will gradually sag southward across
the area and into southern Kansas by late afternoon. Depending upon
where the front is later this afternoon, there remains a small
probability (20-30%) for some storms to develop along the front in
east central Kansas with surface heating and convergence.
Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday, especially across
far northern Kansas where highs will be in the lower 80s, while
areas south of I-70 warm into the mid to upper 80s. This evening
storms are forecast to develop across eastern Colorado then move
eastward into western Kansas where they will then track into central
and south central Kansas along a moisture and instability gradient.
Areas south of I-70 look to have the best chance (70-80%) of storms
producing locally heavy rainfall. A few of the storms could also
pose a wind and hail threat.

Precipitation moves out of the far southeast Sunday morning with
decreasing clouds as high pressure builds in from the north. Highs
will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows drop into the
50s Sunday night across the area, with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s again on Monday.

Warm advection Wednesday on the back side of the surface high will
see a thermal axis develop across western into north central Kansas
where highs will warm back into the lower 90s. Temps warm into the
mid 90s on Thursday as the thermal axis builds eastward into central
and northeast Kansas. Precipitation chances for much of next week
remain low (20% or less), however Tuesday may be the best chance,
(30%), of the week as a mid level trough moves across the Plains.
Another system approaches for the end of next week with the
potential for showers developing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Main concern will be TSRA at TOP and FOE with storms moving
through the local area for the first hour or two of the
forecast. Expect TSRA reducing vsbys to IFR briefly as they move
through. At MHK expect mainly VFR conditions as TSRA has moved
to the east. Winds will be variable with the convection then
settle on a southeast direction at 10 kts or less. A boundary
moves south after 12Z shifting the winds to the northeast by 15Z
at the terminals. Some threat for additional TSRA after 03Z at
MHK so included VCTS for now. Confidence is low for placement of
convection at the end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53