Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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986 FXUS63 KTOP 071113 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 613 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are expected tonight with the potential for damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall. - Storm chances continue on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night with locally heavy rainfall. - Small precipitation chances much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery at 0730Z shows a mid level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies with a general northwest flow across the Plains. A low level jet was noted across the western high Plains this morning. Higher dew points in the 60s were observed across southern Kansas into Oklahoma at 07Z this morning. For today, warm advection showers and storms look to develop within a warm advection regime by early afternoon as the low level jet increases across central and then eastern Kansas. The above mentioned shortwave will move southeast across the central Plains this afternoon and evening, moving off to the southeast after 06Z. Low level moisture will increase through the day and into the evening hours ahead of the wave. Moisture convergence along the frontal boundary within a theta-e axis that develops on the nose of the jet with precipitable water values increasing to around two inches across northeast Kansas this evening. Models continue to point to scattered convection this afternoon across Nebraska forming into a line or a linear MCS and then propagating southeast across north central and northeast Kansas this evening. Ample shear and instability will be present for severe storms with damaging winds and large hail along with heavy rainfall possible. The storm chances will decrease after midnight as the line and the mid level shortwave move off to the east. Saturday a frontal boundary is forecast to move south through the day and then stall across southern Kansas. Minor PV anomalies may move through the westerly flow through the day and into the evening hours. Convergence along the front increases Saturday afternoon and evening with convection developing along the boundary. Isolated severe storms will be possible with large hail and damaging winds. An east to west theta-e maximum is forecast across southern Kansas with precipitable water values increasing to around two inches once again. Moisture transport increases as well through the evening with parts of east central and southern Kansas within a zone of convergence in the 925mb-850mb layer. This will lead to heavy rainfall once again along with high precipitation efficiency of up to 2 inches an hours possible. Models keep precipitation chances low for much of next work week and differences in solutions lean toward a lower (less than 20%) forecast for the week. A cooler northwest flow along with a surface high pressure will keep highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s for Monday and Tuesday, then warming back into the 80s and 90s for the end of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Main concern will be timing of a line of storms through the terminals after 02Z. Concensus of models would suggest 03Z through around 06Z would most likely be the window for TSRA, and have added vcts for now. Winds increase from the south 10-13kts after 17Z, then back to south southeast after 00Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...53