Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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176 FXUS63 KTOP 060510 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1210 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front moves through tonight bringing drier, more comfortable weather for tomorrow. - Rain chances increase Friday night through Saturday, some heavy rain will be possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Looking at satellite this afternoon, the shortwave associated with yesterday`s weather has moved out of the area, and the entire area is enjoying clear skies. Temperatures are currently in the mid-80s, and are expected to approach 90 towards the peak heat of the day. No changes to the forecast were made for today or tonight. Right now, a cold front is beginning to materialize over portions of central Nebraska, and will move to the south during the afternoon. The cold front should move through the area between 10 PM and 4 AM. There is a non-zero chance for an isolated shower or two along the front, but not enough to warrant including any chance of rain in the forecast. The front is not too strong, but should keep tomorrow`s high temperatures in the mid-80s. Skies will be clear and another pleasant day is on tap, with a northerly breeze gusting up to 20 mph. Going into Friday, a strong 850 hPa jet will advect moisture into the area. Eastern KS will be in the right entrance region of a developing 200 hPa jet. This, combined with isentropic ascent and strong warm air advection will promote rising air overnight on Friday. The surface boundary will remain to the south of the area, so all convection would be elevated. The WPC has the area in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall, and with PWAT values approaching 2", some heavy rain will be possible, especially south of the I-70 corridor. The general timeframe for the heaviest rain would be from 6 PM Friday night through 6 AM Saturday morning. Additionally, steep lapse rates above the frontal inversion will support strong elevated instability, which could lead to a severe hail risk. The GFS has around 1000 J/Kg of MUCAPE, while the NAM has over 2000 J/Kg in some areas overnight. As of now, there is no SPC risk in effect, but it is worth keeping an eye on. During the morning on Saturday, the upper level front will push to the south, which will focus the effects of the LLJ further south in OK/AR. The rain should decrease across the area during the day, and northerly winds combined with saturated ground will keep temperatures around 80. Depending on where exactly the stationary boundary ends up, southern portions of the area could see more showers overnight Saturday. A small amplitude shortwave will likely stay across southern Kansas into Oklahoma, but can`t rule out some showers in our area. Included small POPs just in case. Ridging is likely to build back into the area Sunday and Monday. A cutoff low currently off the coast of Mexico will begin to meander towards the CONUS, lowering predictability into next week. As a result, I did not make any changes to the guidance past this weekend. Rain chances will return to the area Tuesday, when the GFS brings the aforementioned closed low towards the TX/OK panhandles. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR at terminals as the fropa shifts winds to the northwest just below 10 kts. Mid level clouds increase behind the boundary with consistency amongst guidance of scattered showers and isolated TSRA developing in the 12Z-15Z time frame. Coverage is high enough to mention in a Tempo group at KMHK, but opted to wait and monitor at KTOP/KFOE. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Prieto