Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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034 FXUS64 KTSA 211125 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 625 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Another warm, humid, and breezy day is on tap today ahead of an approaching cold front. The best chance of convective initiation by mid to late afternoon looks to be in the mid level moist axis well ahead of the front from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Much if not all of this activity may be elevated above a capping inversion, but some severe threat mainly in the form of hail may develop with this activity. Towards sunset, it is possible that a few storms try to get going near the frontal boundary that will be moving into northeast Oklahoma by that time. All severe hazards will be possible with any storms that develop in this area. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain possible this evening into the overnight hours along the cold front as it sags south. The greatest convective coverage is likely to remain across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. At least some severe weather threat is likely to persist well into the overnight hours. The front will eventually stall out Wednesday somewhere in the vicinity of the Red River. Widespread convective activity is expected in its vicinity, with some severe threat. A flood threat may eventually develop with time across mainly southeast Oklahoma due to repeated rounds of convection. To the north, more scattered elevated convection with a hail threat will be possible. The front will lift north/wash out Thursday as an upper wave approaches the area triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms. Another weak frontal boundary will move across the area following the passage of this upper wave, which may give much of the area a break from precipitation Friday. Another upper wave is expected to traverse the area over the weekend bringing additional shower and storm chances. Right now, it looks like Saturday night may be the most favored time frame for precipitation over the weekend. Another cold front will follow this wave Sunday, with a second reinforcing front possibly arriving Monday night. A pattern change is then likely to develop next week bringing a respite to the daily storm chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 For the morning, low clouds spreading north into southeast OK will bring a period of MVFR cigs to KMLC, with lower probability into northeast OK sites from 14-18z. Otherwise gusty south winds continue through afternoon ahead of a cold front. Scattered thunderstorms may develop well ahead of the front from SE OK into NW AR around 21z, but more probable development near the front by around 00Z over NW AR and far NE OK. Evolution of storms late in the forecast period remains rather uncertain, though do expect MVFR ceilings to become more widespread by early Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 63 76 63 / 20 40 50 50 FSM 89 70 82 68 / 40 40 80 80 MLC 87 69 80 65 / 20 30 70 70 BVO 89 59 77 58 / 10 20 40 30 FYV 86 64 76 62 / 40 60 80 70 BYV 87 63 77 62 / 40 60 80 70 MKO 87 65 77 63 / 20 30 70 70 MIO 86 59 74 61 / 50 50 60 50 F10 87 64 75 63 / 20 20 70 70 HHW 87 71 83 67 / 30 20 70 70 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...14