831
FXUS64 KTSA 241129
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A small complex of strong to marginally severe storms will
continue to shove southeastward along the Red River early this
morning, before exiting the area before sunrise. Elsewhere, a cold
front is currently making its way through Kansas down into
northwestern Oklahoma. This boundary will serve as the main focus
for thunderstorm potential across our area from this morning
through the afternoon hours. A few scattered showers or storms
will be possible this morning, mainly across northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas in vicinity of the surface boundary as
a low level jet pumps relatively deep tropical moisture into the
region. Storms will likely be elevated in nature with a capping
inversion in place, but steep mid level lapse rates will allow for
modest elevated instability ahead of the boundary. Any storms
that do form in this environment could become strong to severe,
with large hail the main concern through late morning.

A lull in activity is expected as the low level jet dies down
through the morning and any storms around begin to weaken and
dissipate. Chances for scattered storms then increase again by mid
to late afternoon along the cold front as it slides into
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A very moist and unstable
airmass characterized by MLCAPE of 4000+ J/kg and strong deep
layer shear of 60kts ahead of the boundary would support
supercells capable of all hazards, especially large to significant
hail with the strongest, more isolated cells. Shear vectors
largely perpendicular to the frontal boundary should help keep
cells more discrete for a longer period of time and allow storms
to stay in front of the cold front, increasing the severe threat
into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the evening
hours. Uncertainties still remain however... if morning convection
is more numerous than forecast that could limit the potential for
more storms later in the day or at least shift the focus further
south into Texas and southern Arkansas, so stay weather aware
today as the forecast updates. Highs will mostly be in the 80s
today with lower 80s to the north and upper 80s across the south.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Any ongoing storms will shift south and east of the area through
the evening hours as the front slowly sags southeastward and
eventually stalls/washes out near the Red River. Attention will
then turn to Saturday for the next chance at seeing impactful
severe weather across the region. A neutrally to negatively tilted
shortwave trough will eject out of the Central Rockies and across
the Central Plains by Saturday evening. At the surface, a rapidly
deepening surface cyclone is forecast to develop over southeast
Colorado/southwest Kansas and track east northeastward through the
evening hours with a dryline extending southward through
western/central Oklahoma. Increasing southerly winds ahead of the
deepening surface low will allow for rapid moisture return across
much of eastern Oklahoma during the day Saturday and set up a very
unstable airmass ahead of the dryline by late Saturday afternoon.
An expanding, modestly warm Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) should
suppress convective initiation along the dryline for much of the
day. However, as the mid level wave arrives and height falls
overspread the tightening dryline, at least widely scattered
thunderstorm development is expected across central Oklahoma,
with discrete supercells the likely storm mode. These storms would
spread into eastern Oklahoma by mid evening, with all hazards
possible, particularly very large hail and tornadoes. IT is
likely not everyone will see a storm and there might only be a
few storms across the region, but whatever storms do form will
most certainly be severe. Continue to monitor the forecast for
updates, especially with this being a holiday weekend and lots of
activities going on.

Some showers ad storms could linger into early Sunday morning
across western Arkansas, but should move out fairly quickly. The
pattern will calm some for the late weekend and early next week,
as mid level ridging builds into the area. Mainly hot and dry
weather is expected for the remainder of the long holiday weekend,
with temperatures in the 80s to near 90. Good agreement remains
in the long range on the mid level ridge expanding into the
Intermountain West by mid week and northwest flow aloft developing
over the Plains. Thunderstorm chances will return with this
pattern in the form of nocturnal MCS`s moving off the High Plains
and parts of eastern Oklahoma. Timing and placement of where each
MCS will set up is hard to predict at this range and will be
dependent on previous days activity in a lot of cases. But, look
for nightly rain chances to return to the forecast from mid week
on next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024
A few scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible across
northeast Oklahoma this morning as undular bore approaches from
the northwest, ahead of main frontal boundary, with a brief period
of lower MVFR ceilings. Additional and potentially stronger
storms are expected this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas as frontal boundary slowly moves through the
area. Brief IFR conditions will be likely in the stronger storms
before activity shifts east this evening. Also some potential
for a few lower clouds to develop behind front across portions
of the area tonight with some light fog at NW AR TAF sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  59  88  73 /  30   0  10  40
FSM   86  68  89  74 /  20  40  10  30
MLC   87  66  88  74 /  20  20   0  20
BVO   82  53  87  69 /  30   0  10  50
FYV   83  61  87  70 /  40  30  10  50
BYV   84  61  86  69 /  30  30  10  50
MKO   84  61  87  73 /  30  20  10  30
MIO   81  56  86  69 /  40   0  10  60
F10   84  60  87  73 /  20  10  10  30
HHW   87  67  86  72 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12