Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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861 FXUS64 KTSA 292350 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 650 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Remnant MVC across the area this afternoon has resulted in a few showers and thunderstorms across parts of NE OK, with spotty shower activity noted elsewhere. Expect this to diminish this evening which should leave most of the area dry until late tonight, when PoPs will start to increase for parts of NE/SE OK as another storm complex approaches from the W-NW. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Wednesday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 PoPs to expand Thursday, with the highest PoPs across SE OK as the storm complex tracks towards the the Red River from the morning into the afternoon hours. Expect an overall weakening trend from late afternoon into the evening, but will keep a broadbrush of chance PoPs in between 00-06z. Will increase rain/storm chances after 06z Friday as another complex is expected to develop to the northwest in association with a stronger upper wave. This complex will track towards the forecast area late Thursday night into Friday. Once this wave passes to the east Friday night, much of Saturday should remain dry. A subtle wave passing through Sunday may result in isolated to widely scattered activity, so will carry low end PoPs at this time for the end of the weekend. Overall, the active pattern continues into next week, though some medium range solutions suggest weak, but somewhat `dirty` ridging possibly setting up over the area which may result in lower end coverage of rain and storms. However, any modest mid level height rises will be suppressed by a stronger wave that looks to move through Tuesday night/early Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Isolated shower/storm activity occurring early this evening in portions of far northeast OK and far northwest AR will trend downward as the evening progresses, ending by or just after sunset. VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the evening and overnight hours. A complex of thunderstorms will be moving eastward into eastern OK by mid-late morning Thursday, and if they hold together, into western/northwestern AR by late afternoon or early evening. Still some uncertainty on exact timing of the thunderstorm complex as well as how low ceilings will drop as it approaches the region. Therefore, timing of precipitation may need to be adjusted in future aviation forecasts. At this time, models indicate VFR should hold and prevail through much of the day Thursday. However, lower ceilings/reduced visibilities (MVFR/IFR) are likely underneath heavier rain/storms that occur. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 82 64 81 65 / 50 20 50 70 FSM 82 65 83 67 / 50 20 50 40 MLC 81 65 81 65 / 30 20 60 60 BVO 82 60 81 62 / 40 10 50 80 FYV 82 60 82 65 / 50 20 50 50 BYV 82 60 81 62 / 50 20 50 40 MKO 79 63 79 65 / 50 20 50 60 MIO 82 60 81 64 / 50 20 50 60 F10 79 63 78 65 / 30 20 50 70 HHW 80 65 76 65 / 30 30 60 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...67