694
FXUS64 KTSA 310516
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1216 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

The shortwave trough responsible for the line of convection this
morning/afternoon continues to slide eastward over the Ozarks and
central AR. Lingering light to moderate rain continues to fall,
mainly across far northeast OK and far northwest AR. Latest runs
of the CAMs show light-moderate precipitation persisting across
portions of northwest AR through much of the evening and overnight
hours. GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows another shortwave trough
moving out of the southern High Plains. The shortwave trough is
forecast to generate a thunderstorm complex that is expected to
move across southern OK/Red River vicinity overnight tonight and
through the early morning hours tomorrow. However, trends in hi-
res model data now indicate a southern shift in the thunderstorm
complex`s track from previous runs, with the latest HRRR run
suggesting the complex remains south of the Red River as it pushes
southeastward across northeast TX. Despite this occurring (or not
occurring), there should be sufficient lifting, moisture, and
instability to generate at least isolated to perhaps scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area as the
shortwave trough advances eastward tonight across OK. With PWATs
ranging between 1.5-1.75 inches across all of the area, more
organized showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy to very
heavy rainfall.

With all that said, for the evening forecast update, went ahead
and lowered PoPs area-wide tonight, especially before midnight.
For the sake of forecast consistency and some forecast
uncertainty, kept PoPs at 50-60% after midnight, highest chances
after 3 AM. The absolute best chance of heavy rain (and possibly
marginally severe thunderstorms) through the remainder of the
night and early morning hours will be associated with the
aforementioned thunderstorm complex, if it`s able to remain
along/north of the Red River. This would mostly affect Choctaw and
much of Pushmataha counties in OK. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for Choctaw County through Friday evening.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Showers and storms are expected to expand in coverage Friday morning,
but will favor highest PoPs across SE OK and NW AR in the morning, and
begin to lower PoPs from W-E in the afternoon as the upper wave continues
pushing to the east. Rain/storm chances will continue to diminish Friday
evening an overnight. Subsidence behind the departing wave should allow
for most if not all of Saturday to remain dry. Will maintain low PoPs
for Sunday as another weak wave passes through. Active pattern to
continue the middle of the next work week. However, a stronger
upper system diving into the midwest states may finally push a
cold front through the area which would give the area a break from
the unsettled pattern we have been locked into.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas of light rain are ongoing across northwest AR this morning
with the rest of the area being dry. So far CIGS have not come
down much, but they are expected to overnight, with CIGS of 1-2
kft being common by daybreak. Low CIGS of 1-3 kft will persist
through the day Friday before breaking up in the evening.

Additional showers will develop across northwest AR overnight
through mid morning. Isolated showers will be possible for all
locations during much of the day tomorrow, elected to go with a
long period of vicinity showers in the TAF to cover this
possibility. An isolated thunderstorm could occur at any taf site,
but confidence was too low to include in the TAFs for now. Winds
will be light and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  63  84  67 /  70  30  10  20
FSM   77  67  85  67 /  70  50  20  10
MLC   78  64  85  67 /  80  40  20  20
BVO   75  60  84  63 /  70  30  10  20
FYV   76  62  82  62 /  80  50  20  10
BYV   73  63  81  61 /  80  60  30  10
MKO   75  63  82  66 /  70  50  10  20
MIO   72  62  82  62 /  80  50  10  10
F10   76  62  83  66 /  70  30  10  20
HHW   78  65  83  67 /  80  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ053.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...06