Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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010 FXUS64 KTSA 302347 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 647 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Line of showers and storms moving E-NE through E OK this afternoon. Overall severe threat will remain low, though a few strong to isolated marginally severe storms will remain possible this afternoon, and into the early evening as this activity moves into WC/NW AR. Additional storms have begun to develop just west of the OK/TX panhandles in association with an upper wave that will move into the southern plains later tonight. Storms associated with this feature will begin to impact western section of forecast area, most likely after 06z. Most of the heavier rainfall that occurs tonight through tomorrow is expected to remain south and east of the area, but have opted for a Flood Watch that at this time will only include Choctaw county and will be in effect from 7pm Thursday through 7pm Friday && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Showers and storms are expected to expand in coverage Friday morning, but will favor highest PoPs across SE OK and NW AR in the morning, and begin to lower PoPs from W-E in the afternoon as the upper wave continues pushing to the east. Rain/storm chances will continue to diminish Friday evening an overnight. Subsidence behind the departing wave should allow for most if not all of Saturday to remain dry. Will maintain low PoPs for Sunday as another weak wave passes through. Active pattern to continue the middle of the next work week. However, a stronger upper system diving into the midwest states may finally push a cold front through the area which would give the area a break from the unsettled pattern we have been locked into. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Periodic showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible through much of the forecast period, with KMLC and KFSM most likely to see any significant impacts Friday morning. Ceilings will lower to MVFR later tonight and remain MVFR, and possibly even IFR at times, for the rest of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 65 76 63 84 / 60 70 30 10 FSM 68 77 67 85 / 70 70 50 20 MLC 65 78 64 85 / 70 80 40 20 BVO 63 75 60 84 / 60 70 30 10 FYV 64 76 62 82 / 70 80 50 20 BYV 63 73 63 81 / 60 80 60 30 MKO 66 75 63 82 / 60 70 50 10 MIO 64 72 62 82 / 80 80 50 10 F10 64 76 62 83 / 60 70 30 10 HHW 65 78 65 83 / 70 80 40 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Friday evening for OKZ053. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...05