378
FXUS63 KUNR 250809
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
209 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Showers/Thunderstorms this weekend

-Warmer and drier mid-week with thunderstorms returning for the
 end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Current surface map places weak trough across western South
Dakota. Water vapor imagery shows elongated upper low over
southern Canada into the Great Lakes. For today, shortwave tracks
across the Rockies into the central Plains with surface low
deepening over Kansas. Inverted trough extends northward into
central South Dakota this afternoon. Low level moisture pooling
along with steep mid level lapse rates results in narrow axis of
MLCAPE around 1000J/kg over south central South Dakota. A few
strong/isolated severe thunderstorms possible with marginal shear.

Stronger shortwave rotates through the Northern Plains
tonight/Sunday with a higher probabilities of showers and thunderstorms.
Upper level ridge builds across the Rockies early in the week then
shifts across the Plains mid-week. Dry and much warmer with highs
in the 80s by Wednesday. Ensembles in decent agreement with upper
trough over the Rockies/Plains for the end of the week with a
return of showers/thunderstorms to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 932 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A
few high based showers/storms are possible Saturday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7
AVIATION...Johnson