Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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969 FXUS63 KUNR 031137 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 537 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm today, with passing cold front late today and tonight bringing chances for showers and storms into Tuesday, along with gusty winds on Tuesday. - Warm weather expected for mid week into next weekend, with chances for showers and storms returning by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Current surface analysis shows weakening cold front south and east of the forecast area, with a couple of areas of low pressure along it over western MN and central WY. Another area of low pressure is located across southwest Canada, with a cold front moving into the northern Rockies. Upper level analysis shows near zonal flow across the area at this time, with a trough moving into the Pacific NW. Skies are variably cloudy across the area with a couple of showers over far southwest SD. Temps are mostly in the upper 40s and 50s and light north to northwest winds. Weakening cold front to the south becomes a warm front today and lifts north-northeast back into SD. Very warm temperatures develop across the area, with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 90 degrees, warmest to the east and southeast of the Black Hills. It looks dry through at least the midday hours, with increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and especially tonight as developing southwest flow aloft brings upper level energy into the area along with a cold front. The better chances for rainfall later today through Tuesday morning will generally be from far northeast WY to northwest SD, in closer vicinity to the upper level trough tracking across MT, ND, and the Canadian Prairie Provinces during that time. Buoyancy and shear are forecast to be relatively weak later today, but would not totally rule out a strong storm or two toward south central SD where MUCAPE of over 500 j/kg is forecast. Showers will start to exit the area later tonight and Tuesday morning. Temps will drop back to near average levels for Tuesday, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s, 60s over the Black Hills. West to northwest winds will increase late tonight and Tuesday as cooler and drier air pushes into the area, with some gusts to over 40 mph across northwest into west central SD. There is a 30 to 60 percent chance for some advisory level wind gusts across far northwest SD and the Rapid City area on Tuesday. The mid to late week period looks to be warm and dry as ridge builds over the western US and large trough covers the eastern US. Highs will generally be in the 70s to mid 80s for Wednesday through Friday, warmest toward the end of the work week as the ridge moves over the Rockies. Gusty west to northwest winds will develop again on Wednesday across at least northwest SD as upper low moves across south central Canada. Chances for thunderstorms could return later on Friday, but more likely over the weekend, as the ridge potentially gets pushed westward toward the west coast. This would also bring some cooler air back to the area, dropping temps to near or slightly below average levels. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued At 535 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop after 20Z this afternoon. Scattered showers will then cross the area from west to east between 00Z tonight and 16Z on Tuesday morning. VFR conditions will continue until 06Z tonight, then a band of LCL MVFR conditions will develop along a secondary cold front as it passes through northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota early Tuesday morning. Windy conditions will develop behind the cold front on Tuesday. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...26 AVIATION...10