280
FXUS65 KVEF 310241
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
740 PM PDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will
continue through the end of the week. Winds will pick up over the
weekend as a trough moves through the area. The first full week
of Meteorological Summer will be characterized by hotter than
normal temperatures due to a ridge of high pressure over the
Western US.

&&

.UPDATE...A weak disturbance passing to the north will bring
increasing mid and high clouds to the region this evening.
Otherwise, looking for generally light winds and mild overnight
temperatures. High temperatures Friday are expected to be 1-3
degrees warmer than today and that will put us close to a record
high in Las Vegas, which is 104 degrees set in 2015. Currently there
is a 50% chance of reaching 104 with the official forecasted high of
103 degrees. No other locations will be close to records. Current
forecast looks good and no evening updates planned.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
202 PM PDT Thu May 30 2024

Dry and warm weather are on tap for the region through the end of
the work week as we find ourselves under dry westerly-to-
northwesterly flow aloft. 25 to 35 mph southwesterly wind gusts will
pick up across the Mojave Desert on Saturday as a trough pushes into
the area. Localized wind gusts of 40+ mph will be possible in the
Western Mojave Desert, but will not be widespread enough to warrant
the issuance of a Wind Advisory. Warm and dry conditions combined
with these winds will result in an increased fire weather concerns.
However, no fire weather products are being issued at this time as
fuels have yet to reach critical thresholds. Breezy winds will
linger on Sunday as the trough moves through the area.

A low pressure system will set up off the coast of Southern
California early next week. During this time we will also see a
ridge of high pressure build over the Western US. This ridge will
allow for the persistence of dry conditions across our forecast
area, as well warming temperatures. By mid-week temperatures will be
around 10+ degrees hotter than normal for early June, yielding
widespread Moderate HeatRisk and pockets of Major HeatRisk for lower
elevations and valleys including portions of the Las Vegas Valley
and Death Valley. While we have high confidence in hotter than
normal temperatures next week, uncertainty remains due to
interensemble variability regarding the evolution and behavior of
the cut-off low off the coast of California.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...8 to 12 knot east-northeasterly winds
will continue into the early afternoon when winds will degrease and
swing around to the southeast. These southeasterly winds will swing
around to the west-southwest around sunset before falling back to
the southwest later this evening. Winds will become light and
variable shortly after sunrise, with southeasterly winds picking up
tomorrow afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds at the Colorado River Valley TAF sites will favor
a southerly direction this afternoon and evening with winds becoming
light and variable during the overnight period. Light and variable
winds will pick up and swing to the west later this afternoon at
KBIH. These breezy westerly winds will decrease and shift to the
northwest shortly after sunset. Light easterly winds will pick up
and swing around to the west during the early evening hours tonight
at KDAG. These 25 knot westerly wind gusts will continue for much of
the overnight period before dropping off shortly before sunrise.
Winds at the Las Vegas Valley TAF sites will settle in from a more
southeasterly direction this afternoon before swinging around to the
southwest during the early evening hours. Southwesterly winds will
persist at KHND through the overnight hours while KVGT becomes light
and variable.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gorelow
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Stessman

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