921
FXUS65 KVEF 300819
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
119 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather are on
tap for the region through the end of the week. Winds will pick up
this weekend as a trough digs along the West Coast and moves through
the area. Hot temperatures are likely for the second half of next
week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday night. Midnight satellite loop showed
just a few cirrus passing over our CWA in northwesterly flow aloft.
Surface obs showed very warm temperatures, which were a couple of
degrees warmer on average than 24 hours ago. A weak wind shift line
was moving south through our area, with north to northwest winds
over the southern Great Basin and mostly nocturnal drainage winds
over the Mojave Desert. As the morning goes on, this boundary will
slowly sag south before washing out later in the day. High
temperatures today should be similar or slightly warmer than
yesterday, with a few more degrees of warming on Friday. Low
humidity will continue.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday. A trough will dig along the
West Coast and move through the area over the weekend. This will
result in gusty southwesterly winds across the region on Saturday,
with slightly weaker winds lingering into Sunday. Given the hot,
dry, and windy conditions forecast for Saturday, fire weather is a
concern as fuels continue to cure. As a result, regional GACCs are
highlighting a low-to-moderate risk for significant fire potential
across the southern and western portions of our forecast area.

Forecast uncertainty increases as we head into next week and are
potentially faced with a low pressure system off the coast of
Southern California. The strength and position of this low will play
an important role in next week`s weather, specifically during the
latter portion of the week. The Climate Prediction Center is
highlighting a 33% to 40% chance for above normal precipitation
during the 8 to 14 day period (June 5th through June 11th), which
would be a result of this low aiding in the transport of moisture
into our forecast area. Even with this low sitting off the coast of
California, temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal
for much of next week, with this year`s first occurrences of Major
Heat Risk possible.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...A period of north-northwest winds of
less than 8kts early this morning will turn northeast by late
morning and then to the southeast by mid-afternoon.  Once the
southeast winds develop (after 21Z), there will be a 30% chance of
winds briefly gusting to 18kts.  After sunset, winds should turn to
the southwest.  A similar wind pattern is expected on Friday, with
winds rotating clockwise from northeast to southwest throughout the
day. FEW-SCT clouds with bases AOA 12kft AGL will move into the
region late this afternoon and continue into Friday morning.
Otherwise, mainly clear skies are expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds across the region will follow typical season
directional variations today into Friday.  Wind speeds across the
Las Vegas and Colorado River valley should remain less than 10kts
today into Friday.  At KDAG, winds should remain 12kts or less
through the afternoon before gusty westerly winds to 25kts develop
before sunset.  Gusty westerly winds to 20kts are forecast to
develop in the Owens Valley, including KBIH, late this afternoon and
evening.  Otherwise, northerly winds of less than 10kts are expected
in these areas. FEW-SCT clouds with bases AOA 12kft AGL will move
across the northern half of the region this afternoon and continue
into Friday morning. Across the southern half of the area, mainly
clear skies are expected.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Stessman
AVIATION...Planz

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