Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
245 FXUS65 KVEF 250307 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 807 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds persist through the night, then decrease on Saturday morning. The southern Great Basin and Sierra could see a few showers and thunderstorms this evening. High pressure builds in over the area on Memorial Day and through next week bringing warmer, above normal temperatures to the area. && .UPDATE...A breezy evening is in store for most of the area, with wind gusts of 20-30 mph measured across the Mojave Desert. Latest radar scans indicate isolated lingering convection from Central Inyo County to Lincoln County. Managed to get a few lightning strikes in Inyo County, but otherwise it`s just been showers. This activity will gradually dissipate tonight as the trough axis pushes through. Breezes will be lighter tomorrow with the system pulling away. The pattern begins to change on Sunday as high pressure builds over most of the West. As a result, temperatures rise to above-normal values and dry conditions prevail. A PacNW system looks to weaken the ridge of high pressure by midweek, but the extent of its impacts in our area remain uncertain. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday. The shortwave responsible for today`s winds will move east along the base of an upper level trough tonight, exiting the area by tomorrow morning. The result will be an overall decrease in surface winds on Saturday morning across the area. This includes winds along the Colorado River, where a Lake Wind Advisory will be in effect until midnight tonight. However, continued extra caution on the lakes is advised as waves of 1 to 2 feet remain possible on Saturday. The strongest winds in the forecast area will be in western San Bernardino County. These winds persist into Saturday morning because of a low level jet with speeds up to 40 knots at 850 mb in place over southeast California. Surface gusts of 30 to 35 mph out of the southwest are possible in the Wind Advisory area on Saturday morning even through wind gusts elsewhere stay closer to the 15 to 25 mph range. Therefore, the Wind Advisory continues into Saturday morning for western San Bernardino County. Shower activity in the southern Great Basin should taper off tonight as moisture and instability exit the area with the shortwave. High pressure moves into the western United States on Sunday and the ridge axis should be in place over the Four Corners by Monday. The weather for the remainder of Memorial Day Weekend features light winds with usual afternoon breezes, dry conditions, and near average temperatures. This means highs in the upper 90s to low 100s in Las Vegas and the Colorado River Valley on Memorial Day itself. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Friday. An upper level trough starts to move into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. There is currently discrepancy between models in whether the trough will push the ridge out of the area and move south into the Great Basin by Friday, or stay to the north and merely flatten the ridge. Currently, about 20 percent of ensemble members support the trough moving south, while the remaining members keep the trough to the north. If the more likely scenario occurs and the trough stays north, above average highs, light winds, and dry conditions can be expected. Even if 500 mb heights decrease, southerly warm air advection at the surface should help keep temperatures elevated. However, if the trough digs south in the less likely scenario, gusty winds and cooler temperatures could arrive in the forecast area later next week. Will continue to monitor model trends through next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds with gusts to 30kts will develop by 20Z and persist into the early evening. Winds will decrease slightly after sunset, but occasional gusts to 15kts are expected through most of the overnight period. Light winds of less than 10kts are likely tomorrow morning, but southwest winds with gusts to 20kts are expected to develop by 20Z. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with only FEW-SCT clouds AOA 15kft AGL expected into this evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Las Vegas area TAF sites will see conditions similar to KLAS through the period. A few showers over the northern Sierra should result in westerly winds with occasional gusts to 20kts developing at KBIH this afternoon. After sunset, more typical northerly winds are expected. KDAG will see winds gusting to 30kts into this evening. Conditions should improve slightly overnight, but gusts to 25kts will continue into Saturday afternoon. Southerly winds with afternoon gusts of 20-30kts are expected at the Colorado River Sites today and Saturday. VFR conditions will prevail with only FEW-SCT clouds AOA 15kft AGL expected, mainly over the northern half of the region. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Woods DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter