Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
817 FXUS65 KVEF 092004 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 104 PM PDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Northerly breezes will persist today along the Colorado River Valley before slowly easing this evening. A few isolated showers may develop in Lincoln County this afternoon before spreading southward Friday across mainly the higher terrain of southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona. Sunday onward a warming trend will commence with temperatures climbing several degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM...through Saturday night. Very pleasant conditions exist across the region this afternoon aside from some lingering northerly breezes down the Colorado River Valley. Afternoon satellite imagery depicts a field of fair weather cumulus across Lincoln County and northern Mohave Counties, indicative of some increased mid level moisture in closer proximity to a weak upper low over Utah. This low will retrograde west tomorrow and spread some marginal instability into Southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona, and to a lesser degree eastern California. This will allow for some isolated light showers and perhaps a stray thundershower, to develop across the higher terrain. A few light showers may drift into the adjacent desert valleys with locally gusty winds as well. Activity will diminish with the loss of daytime. The upper low will drift back into the Four Corners region on Saturday with shower chances shifting more into Lincoln and Mohave Counties. Temperatures today and Friday will stay several degrees cooler than average, while moderating closer to normal Saturday. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday. Warm temperatures will be the headline for the long term period as we transition away from persistent trough into a more dominant ridge pattern. Temperatures on Sunday will begin the upward climb as weak low pressure over the region Friday & Saturday moves east and weakens. This will allow for afternoon temperatures Sunday to climb 5-7 degrees above average. Even warmer temperatures are expected Monday through Wednesday as the high pressure ridge strengthens and establishes itself over the Western US. There remains some discrepancy among the various model envelopes on how strong the ridge builds, but regardless of those details, above normal temperatures and dry conditions can be expected across our forecast area. This will translate to high temperatures in the mid 90s around Las Vegas, and lower 100s for the Colorado River Valley. There is also about a 25% probability of Death Valley reaching 110 degrees by Wednesday afternoon, and about a 10% of Las Vegas reaching 100 degrees. As we enter the hotter time of the year, remember that heat is the number 1 weather related killer in the US. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor exposure to the cooler times of the day, and never leave pets or children unattended in hot vehicles. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Expect to see north-northeast winds through the remainder of the afternoon with the direction between 010-040. There is also the possibility of winds between 040-060 at times this afternoon, but overall the direction for the majority of the time will fall between 010-040. Wind speeds will be 12-20 knots through mid to late afternoon, but speeds are forecast to decrease to around 8-15 knots early this evening. Winds may briefly shift back to the northwest toward sunrise, but gradually shift to the northeast by mid-to late morning. Wind speeds will generally be between 7-12 knots on Friday. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with only FEW-SCT mid and high-level clouds expected. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Most regional TAF sites will see north-to-northeast winds continue today and tonight with speeds between 10-20 knots. The highest winds are expected in the CRV, where gusts to 30kts are likely at KIFP and KEED. Winds at KBIH will remain northwest to north through the overnight period, but there is 10-20% chance that winds could briefly shift northeast between 05z-08z this evening with wind speeds between 7-12 knots. VFR conditions are forecast area-wide into Friday, with only FEW-SCT clouds AOA 10kft AGL. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter