131
FXUS65 KVEF 021646
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
946 AM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Less wind today as a broad area of low pressure
moves off to the east. An extensive swath of mostly high clouds will
move over the area Monday and Monday night. Hot temperatures will
occur Wednesday and Thursday as a strong area of high pressure
builds over the region.
&&


.UPDATE...Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies expected across the
region today, with temperatures cooler than yesterday, but still 3-5
degrees above seasonal averages. Less wind than yesterday, with
breezy south-southwest winds picking up in the late-afternoon. No
changes made to the forecast this morning, as it remains in good
shape.
&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...120 AM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024/

.DISCUSSION...Through next Saturday.

Clouds moving through central Nevada are associated with the broad
trough moving through the northern states. Further south, skies are
clear over the Mojave Desert.

The trough is forecast to move east today which will translate into
less wind and a minor dip in temperatures today. A stronger trough
and associated atmospheric river will impact western
Washington/Oregon and the northern Rockies with heavy rain today and
Sunday. This far south, models continue to indicate just a
significant swath of mid/high clouds working south, primarily Monday
and Monday night.

Significant jump in temperatures occurs between Tuesday and Wednesday
as strong ridge of high pressure builds over the Intermountain West.
Forecast temperatures continue to creep up both days with highs 10-
15 degrees above normal. The probability of Las Vegas hitting 110
degrees Thursday has jumped to 63%. The probability of Furnace Creek
(Death Valley NP) hitting 120 degrees stands at 25%. No change is
being made to our existing Excessive Heat Watch this morning, but
additional areas could be added, as well as heat advisories for some
of our higher elevation locations. The temperature forecast becomes
a bit more uncertain Friday-Saturday as moisture/potential
thunderstorm chances increase as a closed low to our south tries to
work its way in.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southerly winds with gusts 20 to 25
knots are expected through sunset, with gusts ending thereafter.
Light winds Sunday morning should go southerly around 10 knots in
the afternoon. There will be a risk of easterly components in the
morning and early afternoon, which if they occur, should remain less
than 10 knots. Winds Monday should be similar to Sunday. No
operationally significant clouds or weather expected through Monday,
although high clouds are expected to blanket the area late Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South to southwest winds gusting around 25 knots are
expected this afternoon, with stronger gusts possible in favored
terrain. Slightly weaker winds are expected Sunday, with gusts of 15
to 25 knots, mainly in the afternoon. Monday, winds will increase a
little in the southern Great Basin, the Sierra Nevada, and the far
western Mojave Desert, and remain similar to Sunday in the rest of
the Mojave Desert. No operationally significant clouds or weather
expected through Monday, although high clouds are expected to
blanket the area from north to south on Monday.
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon minimum relative humidities will be in the
single-digits to low-teens today. There will be slightly increased
moisture across the southern Great Basin and southeastern California
Monday and Tuesday. However, afternoon RH values will remain below
15%. Hot conditions will occur Wednesday and Thursday. The
temperature forecast becomes a bit more uncertain Friday-Saturday as
moisture/potential thunderstorm chances increase as a closed low to
our south tries to work its way into the region.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Varian-Soulat
DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Planz

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