Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
342 FXUS65 KVEF 311617 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 917 AM PDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue into the weekend. Winds will pick up over the weekend as a trough moves through the area. The first full week of Meteorological Summer will be characterized by hotter than normal temperatures due to a ridge of high pressure over the Western US. && .UPDATE...As mentioned in the CLIMATE section below, we have a 50% chance of tying or breaking the record daily high temperature in Las Vegas today. Deterministic forecast is 103, with a record high of 104. 104 has occurred 4 times on May 31st in the past... 2015, 2002, 1997, and 1977. Otherwise, mostly clear skies today with afternoon breezes. No changes made to the forecast this morning, as it remains in good shape. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...143 AM PDT Fri May 31 2024/ .DISCUSSION...Through next Thursday. Satellite showing area of high clouds exiting Clark County with a secondary area of more persistent mid clouds running between Tonopah and Ely. Elsewhere skies are clear with temperatures still hovering around 90 degrees in the lower CRV. A broad trough with numerous perturbations embedded in the flow will be in place across the west today through Monday. A noticable increase in south to southwest wind will occur Saturday, especially across the western Mojave Desert where gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be felt. Elsewhere, gusts will likely range between 25 and 35 mph. There will be a slight dip in temperatures from today into Sunday within the Mojave Desert before readings start to rise Monday- Tuesday. Heights quickly rise across the Intermountain West Wednesday and Thursday leading to hot temperatures. There is widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the area on Wednesday and Thursday with Major HeatRisk concentrated mostly to the lower elevations of Clark County, southern Nye County, Death Valley NP and northwest San Bernardino County. One area to watch will be the formation of a weak closed low in the vicinity of the Baja Peninsula the middle of next week. Location of this low and orientation of the ridge could actually transport some mid/high level moisture our way. Temperatures could be greatly impacted by that cloud cover, thus there is a wide spread noted in the NBM temperature box-and-whiskers next Wednesday and Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Warm and breezy conditions will result in elevated fire weather concerns this weekend. No fire weather products are being issued at this time as fuels have yet to reach critical thresholds. Breezy winds will linger on Sunday as the trough moves through the area. Well above normal temperatures middle to late next week with a few thundershowers over the high terrain not being ruled out. && .CLIMATE...Las Vegas has a 50% chance of tying the record high of 104 degrees today. That record was set in 1977 and occurred again in 1997, 2002, and 2015. No other climate sites will be near their records. Some records to monitor next week with the heat onset. Earliest Las Vegas has hit 110 degrees was June 6, 2010. Kingman and Bishop may hit 100 degrees around one to two weeks earlier than average. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds, sometimes favoring a northeast-to-east direction, will continue through the morning before turning southerly by early afternoon. Speeds will increase to around 10kts and there is a moderate chance (30%) of occasional gusts to 20kts after 20Z. Wind gusts to 22kts are expected to become more prevalent after 23z as the winds turn more southwesterly. Winds will remain out of the southwest through the evening and overnight, but the gustiness should come to an end by mid-evening. Light and variable winds are expected again Saturday morning, followed by breezy southerly winds Saturday afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with only FEW-SCT clouds AOA 120kft AGL this afternoon and evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Typical diurnal wind patterns are expected across the region today into Saturday. Sustained winds at the Vegas area terminals should remain at 10kts or less today, although a few gusts to 20kts are possible between 21Z and 03Z today. Gusty westerly winds will also develop again this evening at KDAG, with gusts to 25kts likely after 00Z. In the Owens Valley, including KBIH, winds will remain light through most of the afternoon before a westerly downslope wind off the Sierra develops after 23Z. Light northerly winds should return after sunset. Winds at the Colorado River Valley terminals should remain 12kts or less into Saturday. VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the TAF period, with only FEW- SCT clouds AOA 120kft AGL this afternoon and evening, mainly across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Varian-Soulat DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...Pierce AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter