708
FXUS65 KVEF 081649
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
949 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will gradually break down this weekend as
a trough approaches the West Coast, ending the worst of the heat
wave. However, hotter temperatures are expected to return for the
middle of the upcoming week before falling again late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...A new record warm low was set this morning in Las Vegas
with the temperature bottoming out at 86 degrees. The previous
record of 84 degrees was set back in 2016. For Sunday morning, the
record warm low of 86 degrees looks safe with the NBM giving an
80% chance or better that the temperature will fall below 86
degrees Sunday morning at the airport.

For today, we are looking for another hot one across the region
with an Excessive Heat Warning continuing for parts of the area
including the Las Vegas metro area. Although we are forecasting
high temperatures to be a little cooler then what we have been
experiencing the past few days, little relief from the heat was
provided overnight with triple digit heat expected again by late
this morning. Any chance of temperatures reaching 110 at the
airport today are very small and there is zero chance of the high
temperature challenging the record of 112 degrees. By 10-11 am
this morning, the temperature at the airport should hit 100
degrees on it`s way to a high around 106 this afternoon. Although
the official forecast high is 4 degrees cooler than yesterday,
some locations in the valley could see temperatures as high as 109
degrees today. The following are probabilities from the latest
NBM of reaching particular temperature thresholds at Harry Reid
today: 80% chance of 106, 75% chance of 107, 63% chance of 108,
and a 25% chance of 109. The chance of anything warmer than 109
is 10% or less.

Otherwise, expect breezes to pick up later this morning and
continue through sunset across much of the area. No significant
winds are expected but we could see wind gusts of 20-25 mph in
most areas although gusts could be a little bit stronger in the
western Mojave Desert near and west of Barstow. Additionally, our
far northern areas from Bishop east to Caliente will see some mid
and high clouds develop this afternoon along with a the
possibilityof a few isolated thunderstorms across the higher
terrain. Our southern areas will be limited to seeing occasional
high clouds. Overall, the forecast looks in pretty good shape so
no updates to the forecast are needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1247 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024...

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Midnight satellite loop showed
mid and high clouds from north of Barstow through Death Valley and
across Nye County into Lincoln County. The coldest cloud tops,
remnants of thunderstorms which persisted into late evening, were
over central Nye County. Surface obs showed locally gusty winds
under and around the dying convection and temperatures a few degrees
cooler than 24 hours ago. For this afternoon, forecast HeatRisk
values continue to trend slowly downward, and the leftover clouds
could influence this as well. Regardless, will keep the Excessive
Heat Warning in place through this evening. The worst of this heat
wave has passed, but with little or no overnight relief, heat stress
could still be accumulating in vulnerable groups. High temperatures
will be a few degrees lower today than yesterday and a few degrees
lower Sunday than today, with highs Sunday approximately seven to 10
degrees cooler than at the peak of the heat wave on Thursday. High
resolution models continue the trend of showing fewer thunderstorms
today than yesterday and fewer still on Sunday, with chances both
days likely confined to the Sierra crest and the northern fringes of
our CWA. Breezy southerly winds each afternoon will lead to elevated
fire danger, but will not be enough to cause red flag conditions.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

A trough of low pressure will cut off near the Baja California coast
early in the week. As it drifts off the coast, high pressure will
wrap around and build over the CWA for Tuesday and Wednesday,
bringing hot temperatures again to the region. Temperatures may
return to around 10 degrees above climatological normal by
Wednesday. The cutoff low finally ejects northeastward on Thursday,
dampening the ridge and bringing gusty southerly wind to the area.
This will also begin a slight cooling trend and the low moves in and
weakens. While this cutoff low will develop over the ocean, it
doesn`t seem to have a lot of moisture associated with it, but will
have considerable dynamics associated with it. Thunderstorms,
perhaps dry thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but it is early and
we`ll have to see how the forecast develops over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds will give way
to SE breezes later this morning. Chance of 10+ knot sustained winds
remains below 50% until 21z. SE breezes of 8-12 knots with gusts up
to 20 knots are likely (75% chance) from 21z through about 00z-01z,
when winds are expected to shift to the SSW. SSW breezes persist
through the night, gradually weakening with time. FEW-SCT mid-level
and high clouds, with bases aoa 12 kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy south-southeast winds at most area TAF sites
late this morning and afternoon, with gusts up to 20-25 knots. The
exception to this is KDAG, where the wind direction will be west or
southwest through the period. At KBIH, vicinity convection may send
westerly or northwesterly outflow through the airport this afternoon.
Rain chances currently stand at 25%, but the chance of outflow winds
reaching the airfield are closer to 50-60%. Scattered clouds around
10 kft with broken clouds above, while the rest of the sites should
only see FEW-SCT clouds aoa 12 kft.

&&

.CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures and record high minimum
temperatures have been tied or broken this week. The table below
shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum
temperature for today, June 8.

RECORD HIGH     SAT, JUNE 8
                Record(Yr)

Las Vegas       112(2013)
Bishop          105(2016)
Needles         118(1955)
Barstow-Daggett 113(2013)
Kingman         107(1955)
Death Valley    123(2013)

RECORD WARM     SAT, JUNE 8
LOW             Record(Yr)

Las Vegas       84(2016)
Bishop          64(2014)
Needles         85(2013)
Barstow-Daggett 77(2016)
Kingman         74(1927)
Death Valley    94(2022)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Salmen

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Berc
AVIATION...Woods

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