397
FXAK69 PAFG 081158
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
358 AM AKDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Red flag warnings in effect for the Interior over the weekend due
to much warmer and drier conditions. Winds will be gusty on
Saturday especially over higher terrain. East winds around 15 to
25 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible. The Interior will warm up to
the upper 70s to mid 80s in some spots over the weekend. Slightly
cooler on Monday with scattered showers and Isolated
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis... An upper low over the Aleutians will
move south on Saturday and move east into the Gulf of Alaska.
Southerly flow over the Interior will shift more southeasterly on
Saturday. High pressure will build over the northern Interior on
Saturday, and southeast flow will continue over the southern
Interior into Sunday. Easterly waves will bring more moisture over
the Interior early next week bringing back showers and isolated
thunderstorms as the ridge over the Interior breaks down. Long
range models showing ridging building back over the Interior
by the end of the week.


Central and Eastern Interior...
High pressure will build over the Interior on Saturday. Red flag
warnings are in effect for the Interior over the weekend due to
much warmer and drier conditions. Pressure gradient will also tighten
over much of the Inteior ramping up the winds Saturday afternoon
especially over higher terrain. East winds around 15 to 25 mph
with gusts to 40 mph possible. East winds 15 to 25 mph over
valley locations, including Fairbanks.

Stronger winds are possible near Delta Junction this afternoon.
A wind advisory is also in effect for gusts to 50 mph. Winds
will weaken slightly on Sunday. The Interior will warm up to the
upper 70s to mid 80s in some spots over the weekend. Easterly
Easterly flow will return early next week with cooler conditions
and the return of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

West Coast and Western Interior...A weak shortwave
will move over the Yukon Delta Coast on Saturday and Sunday
bringing more showers but most of the west coast will remain dry
over the weekend. Temperatures will warm into the middle to upper
70s for inland lower elevation areas over the weekend. Red Flag
Warnings are in effect for lower elevations in the Western
Interior, specifically for areas NE of Anvik and N of McGrath for
the weekend for warm temperatures and low relative humidity values
dipping down to around 25%. Strong easterly winds around 15 to 30
mph will also develop over the west coast and western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range... Dense fog continues over
the eastern North slope this morning. High temperatures will range
from the 30s and 40s along the coast and reaching into the 60s in
the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast...Easterly flow will set up again over the
Interior Monday through Wednesday bringing cooler conditions and
the return of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The west coast
and western Interior will see chances of precip as well. High
pressure progged to build back over the Interior by late next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag warnings are in effect for the Interior and western
Interior over the weekend due to much warmer and drier
conditions and windy as well. Winds will be gusty on Saturday
especially over higher terrain. East winds around 15 to 25 mph
over Valley locations. Gusts to 40 mph over higher terrain.
A wind advisory is in effect for the Delta Junction area on
Saturday. Slightly weaker winds on Sunday. The Interior will warm
up to the upper 70s to mid 80s in some spots over the weekend.
Min RH values around 15 to 25 percent over the weekend. Slightly
cooler on Monday with a return of showers and isolated
thunderstorms.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recently received snowfall present in the Brooks Range / North Slope
area along with warming temperatures will promote snowmelt,
giving the potential for high water for the Colville, Sag, and
Kuparuk rivers and their tributaries. There are some ice jams
present on the Colville, which will enhance any flooding threat.
Water levels are expected to crest by the end of this week into
the weekend. The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding
very slowly. Satellites and ground observations continue to
indicate plenty of snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As
temperatures continue to warm over the next few days, snowmelt
could lead to continued high water for streams in that area.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ912-919-928>947-949-952.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-850-851-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
&&

$$