Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
624 FXAK69 PAFG 061238 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 438 AM AKDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Less active day on Thursday regarding thunderstorms but still some instability across the Interior to produce Isolated to Scattered wet thunderstorms. Friday becoming more isolated. Much warmer and drier conditions are expected on the weekend. Gusty winds will pick up in the eastern Alaska Range north of Trims camp, southerly gusts around 40 to 60 mph through early Friday morning. The Interior will warm back up into the 70s with drier conditions expected. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Level Analysis... An upper low will continue to push south and slightly strengthen, becoming closed off and reaching the Central parts of the Aleutian Islands early Thursday morning and remaining quasi-stationary through Friday. By this point the southern part of the interior will have shifted to a southerly flow with a shortwave expected to impact the West Coast late Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure will build over the northern Interior on Saturday, and southeast flow will return over the southern Interior. Central and Eastern Interior... Less active day on Thursday regarding thunderstorms but still some instability across the Interior to produce Isolated to Scattered wet thunderstorms. Friday becoming more isolated. Much warmer and drier conditions are expected on the weekend. Gusty winds will pick up in the eastern Alaska Range north of Trims camp, southerly gusts around 40 to 60 mph through early Friday morning. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s today will cool into the lower 60s to lower 70s Thu and Fri. Warming back up into the 70s for the Interior over the weekend and drier conditions expected. West Coast and Western Interior... A shortwave over the Western Interior will move continue to produce numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, specifically from Galena south and west with areas of rain, potentially heavy at times. Then by Friday, it looks to dry out with the exception of a few showers and an isolated storm towards Ambler. Showers return to the Yukon Delta by Saturday morning. North Slope and Brooks Range... Once again, fog and low stratus will remain as general onshore flow continues through the period from the sea ice, which will keep temps lowered to near their dewpoints. High temperatures will range from the 30s and 40s along the coast and reaching into the 60s in the Brooks Range. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible for the central and eastern Brooks Range through Thursday. Friday will be more benign with isolated showers in the west as the shortwave drifts northwestward away from the region. SW flow begins on Friday, which will work to erode cloud cover near North Slope coastal areas, which will allow temperatures to rise well into the 40s. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... For the Interior, RH is slightly higher than yesterday, and will remain above 25% through Fri. Temperatures in the 60s and 70s today will cool into the lower 60s to lower 70s Thu and remain cool into Fri. Less active day on Thursday regarding thunderstorms but still some instability across the Interior to produce Isolated to Scattered wet thunderstorms. Friday becoming more isolated. Much warmer and drier conditions are expected on the weekend. Near red flag conditions possible over the weekend. The western interior will see daily afternoon thunderstorms for the next couple of days. These storms could bring around half an inch of rainfall with the heaviest and most persistent of storms. Late this evening into Thursday, the shortwave over the Central Interior will move over the West Coast and Western Interior, specifically from Galena south and west with areas of rain, potentially heavy at times. Some weaker shortwave troughs will follow that, giving a progressively diminishing trend in intensity and coverage of the showers and thunderstorms. Then by Friday, it looks to dry out with the exception of a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm towards Ambler. && .HYDROLOGY... Recently received snowfall present in the Brooks Range / North Slope area along with warming temperatures will promote snowmelt, giving the potential for high water for the Colville, Sag, and Kuparuk rivers and their tributaries. There are some ice jams present on the Colville, which will enhance any flooding threat. Water levels are expected to crest by the end of this week into the weekend. The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly. Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate plenty of snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures continue to warm over the next few days, snowmelt could lead to continued high water for streams in that area. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-811-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861. && $$