102
FXAK69 PAFG 101352
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
552 AM AKDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances increase across parts of the Interior
the next couple of days, with wetter and cooler weather for the
Alaska Range and the southern Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis...
Models are in good agreement that a few upper level lows with some
pretty decent vorticity maxes associated with them at 500mb will
move over the region over the next few days. This will bring
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms south of the Brooks
Range, especially for today and tomorrow. The biggest chances will
be for the central, western, and eastern Interior as those areas
have the highest model forecast CAPE and lowest model forecast LI
values.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Gradual cooling begins today as showers and isolated thunderstorm
increase in probability across the S Interior to the Alaska
Range. Today, numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms will be
possible. Some showers will be quite heavy, and it is expected
that showers will form into more organized rainfall as they drift
south toward the AK Range, with locally heavy rainfall possible,
especially over the E Alaska Range. This general pattern persists
into Wed, with cooler temps and wetter weather for the S Interior,
with the only dry area over the Yukon Flats where it will remain
in the mid 70s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Warmer weather continues today especially over the
Western Interior, but it will spread over parts of the Seward Peninsula
as well. Blustery N winds continue over the Bering Strait into
Tue. With the warmer weather, it will also bring thunderstorm
chances, especially from the Yukon Valley to the Delta, and across
the E Seward Peninsula. Some of these storms today may move
offshore into Norton Sound as well with northeasterly steering
flow. Waves will keep moving through the flow on Tue and Wed with
more thunderstorm chances mainly over the Interior, along with
locally heavy showers, especially over the Middle Kusko and Lower
Yukon Valleys.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Once again, fog and low stratus, as is typical this time of year, will be
present over much of the Arctic coast most of the next several days, with
some possible further south toward the northern Brooks Range
during the morning time frames. With a tightening pressure
gradient south of an Arctic high, the North Slope and especially
Arctic coast will see increasing winds from the east to northeast lasting
through the next few days. The highest winds are favored over the
western Arctic, where winds of 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts
will be likely. Some showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible in the Central and Eastern Brooks Range with a west-
tracking upper low today with a lower chance for showers on
Tuesday. A gap in the low stratus and fog has moved ashore
overnight and should persist over the Arctic coast through the day
today. By evening, the low stratus and fog should move back in
from the north.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 3-6... After Wednesday, the global models
and their ensemble suites continue to slowly build in ridging
aloft from the Arctic Coast and into the Mainland, into Saturday.
It does look to get warmer over the Interior again, but not
necessarily hot, with the chance for daily afternoon
thunderstorms. Out west, there will be a closed low meandering
nearby which may keep it cooler.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The hot, dry and, windy conditions will fade the next few
of days as temperatures slowly cool and minimum RH levels creep up above
the 20 percent range. The other story will be increased chances
for thunderstorms today along the thermal trough over the S
Interior all the way to the Yukon Delta and W interior. These will
be wet storms, with areas of widely scattered thunderstorms
possible. It looks more showery and cooler over the S Interior Tue
and Wed with chances for wetting rains.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Sunshine and relatively warm temperatures continue over the N
Slope and Brooks Range, with snowmelt continuing along with
gradual rotting of river ice. Ice jams have progressed downstream
past Horseshoe Bend, with water levels increasing around Horseshoe
Bend. A small ice jam has formed at the Itkillik River confluence
four miles upstream of Nuiqsut. Water levels on the Kuparuk River
near Deadhorse have risen to within moderate flood stage at 37.8
feet due to a likely ice jam downstream of the gage near
Deadhorse. Water levels in the Colville River at Umiat have
increased by 1 foot since yesterday with the flood stage
approaching action stage. The Sag River at Pump Station 3 is also
experiencing higher water levels with it crossing action stage of
19 ft and heading toward minor flood stage of 20ft. These
increased water levels are projected to continue to move
downstream in the coming days. These water levels could
potentially continue to rise into the workweek. With the
relatively warm temperatures expected to continue, we could see
gradual snowmelt leading to further increasing water levels on
the Colville River, Kuparuk River, and the Sag River along with
the ice jams.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ806-854-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
&&

$$