132
FXUS61 KALY 240747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
347 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring sunny, dry, breezy and pleasant weather
today and clear and cool weather tonight. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the weekend as a disturbance
crosses the region. A stronger low pressure system is expected
to bring a widespread rainfall on Monday with occasional showers
lingering into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will slowly build into the region through tonight.
After a cool start to the morning along with some patchy fog
across Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, temperatures will
moderate well with highs reaching the 70s across most areas
with some lower to mid-80s along the Hudson Valley and into
Litchfield County, CT (around 5 to 10 degrees above average).
Gusty west to northwesterly winds are likely to develop during
the afternoon as a dry cold front crosses the area. Some gusts
over 30 mph are possible from the Mohawk Valley to the Capital
District and Berkshires. This should aid in mixing out dewpoints
so blended in the NBM10% for the afternoon hours and for tonight.

Precipitable water values lower further tonight (under 0.50 of
an inch) as the high from Canada builds overhead. Ideal
radiational cooling conditions are likely again tonight after
winds decouple and could result in lows reaching similar values
to early this morning. Have blended in the colder guidance for
lows including the NBM10% and MET/MAV MOS. This could result in
lows generally in the 40s to lower 50s with some pockets of
upper 30s possible across portions of the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Much of Saturday looks nice as the high shifts to our east with
a mostly sunny sky. There will be much less wind compared to
Friday. Highs will once again reach the lower 70s to lower 80s.
An upper- level shortwave and increase in moisture (precipitable
water values increasing to over 1 inch) and some weak
instability should result in at least some scattered showers and
thunderstorms beginning later in the afternoon or early in the
evening for areas west of the Hudson Valley and shifting
eastward during the evening and overnight hours. Current
expectations are for this activity to remain sub-severe,
especially if activity doesn`t pass through until near or after
sunset. Lows Saturday night should only fall back into the 50s
to around 60 with some clouds around throughout the night.

Despite some weak ridging on Sunday, enough instability may
develop for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day. The better instability looks to be located
for areas south and east of Albany but a shower or storm could
develop anywhere. Highs in the lower 70s to lower to mid-80s are
expected on Sunday. Any storms will dissipate after the loss of
daytime heating Sunday evening. A low pressure system
approaches from the Upper Great Lakes toward daybreak Monday but
most of the shower activity should stay just to our south and
west through the night. Lows will fall back to the mid-50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main focus in the long term is potential for widespread rainfall
(possibly heavy) on Monday. A fairly deep cyclone for late May
(MSLP anomalies of -2 to -3 STDEV) is forecast to track NE from
the upper Great Lakes Mon morning to near the Ontario/Quebec Mon
evening. Southerly winds will increase across our area ahead of
and along a complex surface front(s) that will progress
eastward through Mon night. While it is unclear whether we will
get into a true warm sector, deep layer moisture will steadily
increase with PWAT anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV.
Strong forcing from the surface front and an upper level short
wave supports widespread rainfall. ECMWF ensemble probs for > 2"
rain are low < 20%, but a solid 1-2" may occur especially in
favored southerly upslope areas. Main question is how much
convective rainfall occurs, which is dependent on the if we can
get into a warm sector. If this does happen, there would be more
of a flash flood threat. At this time it appears less likely,
with more of an occluded frontal passage. Will continue to
monitor trends.

Rainfall becomes more showery on Tue, as the main front and
cyclone in Canada shift east of our region. However, with a
broad upper level trough in place, an additional short wave
disturbance is expected to move through. This will result in
scattered to numerous showers. Will continue to mention slight
chance thunder during diurnally favored times, but overall
potential looks low.

Wed into Thu, guidance is showing a possible upper level cut-off
upper low developing and tracking near/over the Northeast.
Surface cyclogenesis along/near the coast would be possible,
resembling more of a cool-season storm system. This would result
in a widespread rainfall with below normal temperatures, and
could be something to monitor if this pattern does evolve.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the 24 hour TAF period. There is a low probability of
radiational ground fog at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF through the early
morning hours, however fog development is generally not expected
given dry advection and fairly decent westerly winds above the
low level inversion. So will just mention TEMPO for MVFR vsby
given expected conditions. VFR with mainly clear skies will
prevail after 12z today.

Winds will initially be calm, becoming southwest around 5 kt
shortly after sunrise, then shift to the west-northwest this
afternoon with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt and gusts of 20-25
kt developing.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...RA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV