Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
FXUS61 KALY 291526
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
Issued by National Weather Service Burlington VT
1126 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
Morning clouds will give way to increasing breaks of
sunshine today with temperatures close to normal. After a dry and
seasonable day on Thursday, another storm system will impact the
region for Thursday night through Friday night with rain and snow.
Although valley areas will only see limited accumulations due to
mixing with rain, higher terrain areas may see at least a moderate
accumulation of snow.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1126 AM EDT...While mid level moisture is decreasing the
lingering low level moisture has taken the form of post frontal
stratus and is persisting around the region. Based on the latest
WV satellite imagery the dry air aloft is starting to create
some breaks in the cloud cover so the sun should be able to peak
out briefly this afternoon. Current temps are warming into the
mid 40s so we are well on our way to seeing max temps this
afternoon in the mid to upper 40s with perhaps a couple of
locations seeing 50 where the clouds break. The current forecast
has this well covered with no significant changes to the
Previous discussion...In the wake of a frontal boundary, plenty
of lingering low level moisture is keeping low stratus clouds,
fog and mist around this morning. In addition, some patches of
drizzle have even formed around the Capital Region. As drier air
starts to work into the region, this drizzle will taper off by
8-9 AM. Although the morning is beginning cloudy, daytime
heating will combine with cooling temps aloft to promote mixing,
and help dissipate these clouds somewhat, allowing for a partly
sunny sky by afternoon for most areas.
As an upper level trough slides by to the north of the region,
850 hpa temps will fall from around 0 to -5 degrees C this
morning to -4 to -9 degrees C by this evening. Despite this
nearby upper level feature, no precip is expected and it should
be dry through the entire day.
Good mixing will still promote for seasonable temps, with valley
highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Higher terrain areas will be
cooler with temps only in the upper 30s to low 40s. The good
mixing will allow for some gusty winds, especially by this
afternoon. Northwest winds may gust 20-30 MPH at times,
especially in channeled valleys and across the higher
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As high pressure passes over the region, dry and quiet weather
is expected for tonight into tomorrow. Skies will generally be
fairly clear, although some clouds are expected by late in the
day tomorrow as the next storm system starts to approach. Winds
will diminish tonight and be lighter for Thursday. Temps will be
in the 20s tonight and mainly be in the 40s on Thursday.
The next storm system will be approaching for Thursday night. A
closed off low at 500 hpa will be sliding across the Ohio Valley
on Thursday night into Friday and towards the mid-Atlantic for
Friday night. At the same time, another weak northern stream
feature will be approaching out of southern Canada, although
model guidance suggest that these two features don`t fully phase
at they head towards the eastern United States. At the surface,
the initial low will track through the Ohio Valley on Friday,
while another low develops east of the mountains and rapidly
develops for Friday night as it heads east towards the western
The main driver for our weather will be the potent southern
stream system, which will have ample moisture out of the Gulf of
Mexico and western Atlantic. As this storm approaches,
precipitation looks to break out from west to east on Thursday
night thanks to isentropic lift/warm air advection. With temps
both at the surface and in the boundary layer initially being
cold (along with wet-bulbing processes), precip looks to start
out as a period of snow for Thursday night into early Friday
morning. This will occur for both valley and high terrain areas,
with a light accumulation possible by the morning commute
(especially for areas west of the Hudson Valley). Lows will
generally be in the 20s to near 30 on Thursday night as precip
The high pressure that provided the cold air mass to start will
be departing off the coast of New England on Friday morning. As
a result, through the morning hours, a persistent (although
light) east-southeast flow at low to mid levels, along with the
strong late March sunshine, will aid in warming the boundary
layer. It will be a battle between this warming and the cooling
of falling wintry precip for what p-type occurs. Ultimately,
model guidance suggest that valley areas looks to transition
over to rain or a rain/snow mix by afternoon, while higher
terrain areas remain mainly snow. At the same time, warming
aloft (around 800 hpa) could also allow for some sleet at times,
mainly for areas south of Interstate 90. Temps in valley areas
look to reach the mid 30s, with low 30s for the higher terrain
areas by Friday afternoon and these temps look to hold steady
at these values for Friday night.
This will all be a close call, as heavy precip could allow the
column to go isothermal at times, with precip falling as heavy,
wet snow, even in valley areas. Models and ensembles do suggest
plenty of QPF, with many showing over 1.00" liquid having
fallen by Friday night. For now, we have a few inches of snow
accumulation (4" or less) for valley areas, with accumulations
of 6"+ for the mountains, with the highest amounts across the
southern Green Mountains and the southern Adirondacks. This will
be subject to change and is a rather low confidence forecast at
this time. Snow ratios will be fairly poor through the event,
as the best dendritic growth zone will be around 500-600 hpa,
which is above most of the strong lift. Also, boundary layer
temps at or just above freezing will aid in some melting, making
the snow wet and dense.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There are chances for lingering precipitation Saturday morning as
the system departs. Precipitation may linger into the afternoon in
southern VT. Highs Saturday in the 40s with around 40 higher
High pressure and dry weather is expected to build into the region
Sunday and exit to the east on Monday. Highs Sunday in the mid 40s
to around 50 but around 40 higher terrain. Highs Monday, with warm
advection increasing, in the lower to mid 50s but mid 40s higher
Another upper cut off system is expected to eject out of the
southern plains toward the northeastern U.S. Monday night through
Tuesday. There are some disagreements in sources of guidance as to
how much low level cold air is anchored in our region from the high
pressure off southern Canada. The upper cut off system is not as
strong and deep as would be needed for widespread snow and there are
indications it may track too far south for lots of precipitation
this far north.
Boundary layer temperatures are indicated to be around or just above
freezing. So, we have to wait until next weekend to see what
potential precipitation types and transitions we can expect with the
Monday night through Tuesday system. Until those details become
clearer, indicating chances for rain and snow later Monday night
transitioning to rain Tuesday. Highs Tuesday in the 40s.
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front continues to exit but high pressure is slow to build
into the region. Low level moisture is lingering as well as cloud
cover. There are gradual trends of rising ceilings and improving
visibilities from north and west to south and east. However, there
are areas of drizzle near KALB and KGFL that may cause some
intermittent lower ceilings and visibilities through about 13Z.
Predominant visibilities at all TAF sites should be VFR, except if
there are intervals of drizzle. Ceilings are MVFR but there could be
intervals of IFR ceilings again where drizzle occurs. There is some
clearing to the north and west that is slowly building east and
south and the conditions should improve at the TAF sites through the
morning. Ceilings should rise to VFR by 16Z-18Z and remain VFR
through 06Z tonight. Visibilities are expected to remain VFR as well.
Winds are expected to remain north at less than 10 Kt through mid
morning. North to northwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 Kt with
gusts over 20 Kt later this morning through afternoon. The north to
northwest winds will diminish to less than 10 Kt this evening.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. No Sig Wx.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...SHSN.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Much of eastern New York and western New England continues to
have snow on the ground. Although snow melt has been ongoing
recently and most valley areas only have snow depth of a few
inches, much deeper snowpack remains across the hills and
Clouds will break some sunshine today with near seasonable
temperatures. Although northwest winds will gust 20-30 mph this
afternoon, RH values will remain elevated (generally above 45-55
percent). After a dry day Thursday, more precipitation in the
form of rain and snow is expected on Friday.
The recent rainfall and snowmelt has led to some rises on rivers
and streams. A few river points came close or reached action
stage, but no flooding occurred. With daytime temperatures well
above freezing, some additional snowmelt is expected today and
tomorrow, but no precipitation is expected. This should allow
rivers and streams to slowly start to recede by later today or
Another storm system is expected on Thursday night through
Friday night. Precipitation will be in the form of rain and
snow, with mainly snow or mixed precipitation across the highest
elevations. This wintry precipitation will initially prevent
much runoff from occurring. Still, some rivers are expected by
Friday into Saturday. At this point, the MMEFS would suggest no
flooding is expected, although this will ultimately depend on
precipitation type and exact amounts which are still uncertain.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our