Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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723
FXUS61 KALY 241415
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1015 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Temperatures
could reach record high levels today through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1015 AM EDT...Made some minor adjustments for the rest of
today. Lowered max temps by a few degrees in most locations due
to expected mixing heights being relatively shallow compared to
summer months. Regardless, it will be a hot day with mid to
upper 80s expected for highs across the entire area. Dewpoints
will increase somewhat (lower to mid 60s) compared to Saturday,
but will likely not be overly oppressive due to dry soil and a
weak northerly flow.

Temperatures are still forecast to hit record levels this
afternoon. This is due to high pressure both at the surface and
aloft working its way over the region. The latest GEFS 925mb
temperatures are 1 to 3 standard deviations above normal.
Additionally, temperatures will start out 10 degrees higher than
yesterday morning (when highs reached the mid 80s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Hot and humid weather will continue through the period as the
core of the abnormally warm temperatures and ridging becomes
centered overhead. A weak backdoor wind shift boundary could
turn the surface winds to east and southeast Monday night and
Tuesday but winds still expected to be very light.

Low level moisture will increase gradually as well and the
combination of temperatures and dew points will make it feel
like summer. Dew points will rise solidly into the 60s and with
highs well into the 80s/low 90s, heat indices could peak in the
mid 90s in some areas. The core of the heat looks like it will
get squeezed to the north and west of Albany but this depends on
how the backdoor boundary moves and if the low level ridging
gets split by the boundary.

Sunny skies are expected today and Monday with record highs
possible both days. These records are highlighted in the climate
section below. Clouds and low level moisture will start
increasing on Tuesday ahead of Hurricane Maria approaching the
Carolina coast and the upper ridge starting to weaken. Depending
on the cloud cover, some locations could eek out 90 degrees
again on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, shower chances return from
southeast to northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended forecast period opens with the mid and upper level
ridge over the Northeast weakening, as the flow aloft becomes
flatter.  Hurricane Maria is likely to be located somewhere near or
east of the Outer Banks of NC midweek with some differences in the
location and timing of Maria between the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian GGEM.
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts
on Maria. A cold front will be approaching from the Great Lakes
Region and the Midwest mid-week.  Wednesday looks like the last
above normal temperature day with H850 temps in the +16C to +17C
range. Sfc dewpoints will also continue in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of
the front.  The instability does not look large, as SBCAPEs are in
the 250-750 J/kg range for portions of the region.  Some enhanced
shower activity may be with an outer low-level convergent band well
north of Maria.  Scattered showers will likely linger into the
evening. Max temps will be about 15 degrees above normal still with
lower to mid 80s in the lower elevations, and 70s to around 80F over
the higher terrain. Lows will be in the 50s north and west of the
Capital District, and lower to potentially mid 60s from the Capital
District south and east into the mid-Hudson Valley, Southern
Taconics, and NW CT.

Thu-Thu night...The sfc cold front will be east of the region in the
morning, but the better push of low to mid level cold advection will
be moving across the region during the late morning and into the
afternoon.  Hurricane Maria takes a hard right and gets picked up by
a broad and somewhat amplifying upper level trough.  H850 temps fall
to +4C to +8C from the Capital Region north and west by the early
evening. There will be a decrease of showers during the day with
only some isolated instability or upslope isolated showers over the
western New England higher terrain, and the western Adirondacks
during the afternoon.  It will become breezy and cooler with highs
trending downward and closer to normal late Sept readings with
mainly mid 60s to mid 70s with some cooler readings over the
mountains such as the southern Dacks, and a few upper 70s are
possible in the mid-Hudson Valley.  Lows fall into the 40s to lower
50s with a few U30s in the southern Dacks.

Friday into Saturday...The mid and upper level trough continues to
dig equatorward with another cold front approaching from the west
Fri. Most of the day should be dry with just a slight chc of a lake
enhanced shower for the southern Adirondacks.  Brisk and cool
conditions will usher in temps very close to late Sept seasonal
normals.  A secondary cold front, and a trough of low pressure will
bring some scattered showers to the area late Fri night into Sat.
Some differences between the 00Z EC and 00Z GFS with the evolution
of the the mid and upper trough, where EC has the low close off over
the lower Great Lakes Region and a wave of low pressure developing
off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, as some rain would spread north for the
2nd half of the weekend. Temps may close Sept near normal or a
couple degrees below normal with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s,
and highs in the 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A strong ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will
remain in place over the region through today into tonight
providing hot and humid conditions.

Radiational fog/mist is expected to dissipate quickly over KGFL
by 13Z. VFR conditions are expected with plentiful sunshine due
to the strong subsidence with the ridge today into early this
evening at KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. A few-sct cirrus maybe around,
and perhaps a few diurnal cumulus at KPSF.

Some radiational mist and fog is likely at KPSF/KGFL/KALB
tonight especially after 06Z with increasing dewpts and low-
level moisture. We are expecting LIFR/IFR conditions at these
locations. We were not as confident at KPOU due to the dry
boundary layer and kept conditions VFR for now.

The winds will increase from the north to northwest at 4 to 7
KT by the late morning into the afternoon. Local topographical
effects could allow for more of an east/southeast wind at KGFL
at 5 KT or less. The winds will become calm once again early
this evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Temperatures
could reach record high levels today through Tuesday.

RH values will be in the 90 to 100 percent range tonight and
Monday night. RH values will drop to 40 to 60 percent this
afternoon and Monday afternoon.

Light and variable north to northeast winds will persist today,
then trend east and southeast Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next
week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast
well into this coming work week as high pressure dominates. The
next chance for rainfall will be on Wednesday and Thursday with
less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall expected.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures will be possible today through Tuesday.

Here is a list of the current Record highs for September 24-26:

Albany NY:
September 24th/Sunday: 87 degrees 1961
September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970
September 26th/Tuesday: 89 degrees 2007
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY:
September 24th/Sunday: 86 degrees 1961
September 25th/Monday: 84 degrees 2007
September 26th/Tuesday: 87 degrees 2007
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY:
September 24th/Sunday: 91 degrees 1959
September 25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970
September 26th/Tuesday: 90 degrees 2007
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing
from January 1993 through July 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/JVM
NEAR TERM...JPV/JVM
SHORT TERM...NAS/JVM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS/JVM
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JVM
CLIMATE...ALY Staff



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