538
FXUS61 KALY 090759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
359 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy conditions with seasonable temperatures
will prevail today, as some showers move in south of the Capital
District in the late afternoon.  Showers will increase tonight into
Friday due to an upper level disturbance and low pressure moving
across the northern Mid Atlantic States.  Cool conditions continue
into the weekend with isolated to scattered light showers with an
upper level low being over the Northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 359 AM EDT...An mid and upper level trough will be over
southeast Canada this morning. Zonal flow will be over NY and
New England, as these areas are in the mid and upper level jet
confluent region. Low pressure is organizing over the Ohio
Valley. The flatter flow will allow for weak ridging to take
hold with drier conditions for most of the day. It will be
mostly cloudy with cooler temps compared to yesterday.

A few light sprinkles or showers will diminish this morning. The
latest short range and ensemble guidance indicates drier and
slower trends for over running rainfall spreading back into the
forecast area. PoPs have been reduced until the late afternoon
south of the Capital District. The isentropic lift increases
with light rain spreading northward ahead of the low pressure
system and warm front. The H500 trough becomes positively tilted
over the OH Valley. The tightening low/mid level thermal
gradient will increase the FGEN. We have the highest PoPs south
of the I-90 corridor towards the early evening. Highs will be
seasonal with mid 50s to around 60F over the hills and mtns and
mid and upper 60s in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...A cool and chilly night is expected with the cyclonic
vorticity advection associated with the trough combined with
some isentropic lift will bring a period of rain for most of the
forecast area. Locations north and east of the Capital Region
may see more scattered showers early on. Sfc ridging near
southeast Quebec and the Gulf of St Lawrence may limit the
northward extent of the showers. Lows will be in the 40s with
some upper 30s over the southern Adirondacks and southern
Greens.

Friday into Friday night...The mid and upper level low becomes
neutral tilted with some Atlantic moisture tapped. The blocking
sfc anticylone remains upstream. Periods of showers will
continue over most of the forecast area. Low stratus and light
showers will will prevail east of the Hudson River Valley/Lake
George, but steadier rain is likely to the west. The low
pressure system passing to the south and its associated inverted
trough will focus the steadier rain over the western zones.
Temps will run below normal with mid 40s to lower 50s over the
higher terrain and 50s to around 60F in the valleys. These temps
will be a 5-10 degrees below normal. The showers taper Fri
night with the sfc wave moving into the western Atlantic. The
sfc anticyclone attempts to build in from near New Brunswick.
Cooling down low-levels may allow for some wet snowflakes over
the southern Greens/southern Dacks. Lows will be in the 40s with
some mid 30s to around 40F reading over the higher terrain.

The next northern stream short-wave approaches from the western
Great lakes Region and dives in across PA and NY for the opening
of the weekend. This feature will increase clouds and bring
some isolated to scattered showers late in the day. The upper
level trough trough becomes negatively tilted. The scattered
showers may become more widespread Sat night due to the
cyclonic vorticity advection. Temps may be slightly warmer than
Fri, but still below normal with 50s and lower 60s with cooler
readings over the mtns. Lows will be in the 40s once again with
some upper 30s over the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period opens Sunday morning with the region located
beneath the heart of an upper low while northerly low-level flow
about the western flank of a surface low over the Canadian Maritimes
advects unseasonably cool air into the region. Cyclonic flow will
yield persistent chances for rain showers through Sunday afternoon,
and temperatures will struggle to rise out of the upper 40s to 50s,
some 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Dry weather will briefly return Sunday night into Monday as the
upper low rapidly exits to the northeast while upper heights rise
locally. Cold overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s are
expected Sunday night, but developing mid- and upper-level flow out
of the southwest will see temperatures warm to near or above normal
values into the workweek. Afternoon highs Monday through Wednesday
will generally reach into the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain,
and mid 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations, while nighttime lows
will dip into the mid 40s to mid 50s Monday through Wednesday nights.

A series of upper shortwaves will bring a return to unsettled and
showery weather Monday night and beyond. The first system looks to
pass over the region Monday night into Tuesday morning, followed by
a second, more potent wave later Tuesday into Wednesday as a surface
low develops over the Mid-Atlantic and tracks along the coast to the
northeast. There remains significant spread among numerical guidance
in the details of these systems, but the most likely outcome at this
lead time is scattered to numerous rain showers as each of these
systems pass near the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the remainder of the overnight period, with a chance for MVFR cigs
to develop at ALB/GFL/PSF after 08-09Z Thu, before returning to VFR
by 12-15Z Thu as diurnal mixing begins. Farther south at POU, low
clouds will hold off until after 12Z Thu, with only increasing
cirrus coverage expected through the early morning. No vsby
restrictions are anticipated through Thursday morning.

A warm front will lift across the region from the south Thursday,
bringing increasing low cloud coverage and rain showers in the
latter half of the period. MVFR cigs are expected to precede the
onset of light precipitation, arriving after 18Z Thu. Rain showers
will spread from south to north, with arrival time currently best
estimated at POU by 21Z Thu, PSF by 00Z Fri, and ALB/GFL by 03Z Fri.

West to northwest winds at ALB/PSF around 10 kt with occasional
gusts of 15-20 kt may continue through the next 2-3 hours, through
08-09Z Thu, before speeds lessen to less than 10 kt and winds shift
out of the northwest to north. West winds at POU will similarly
shift out of the north overnight, before flow turns increasingly out
of the northeast, persisting at 5-8 kt at all terminals through the
day on Thursday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard