130
FXUS61 KALY 120527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
127 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will continue to allow for partly to
mostly cloudy skies and cool conditions overnight.  Some partial
clearing on Wednesday, as the upper level low finally starts to move
away from the region.  Much warmer temperatures are expected for
Thursday into Friday ahead of a cold front, which is expected to
bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 100 AM...A batch of lower-level stratus has
spread further into the region this morning as an area of low
pressure remains overhead aloft. Upstream, a band of high cirrus
associated with a low pressure system adjacent to the Hudson
Bay slowly approaching from the west. Where skies have remained
clear, temperatures have dropped into the upper 40s to low 50s
while areas with more consistent cloud cover range from the mid
to upper 50s. Increased cloud coverage with this update to
account for recent trends and subsequently made minor
adjustments to temperatures. However, the previous forecast
remains in good shape and few other changes were necessary. See
the previous discussion below for additional information...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
As of 1024 PM EDT...The clouds have thinned over portions of
the Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks, mid Hudson Valley and
NW CT based on the satellite picture and observations the past
few hours. Old Forge has cooled to 47F in the west to southwest
Adirondacks. Conditions are partly to mostly cloudy over the
rest of the forecast area with the upper level overheard. The
00Z KALY sounding has the low-level inversion at 800 hPa with
drier air above it. The low- levels are dry below it.

The clouds should gradually thin overnight to partly
cloudy/mostly clear conditions. Some adjustments to sky cover.
Finally, some patchy shallow radiative fog was mainly added
west of the Hudson River Valley and over the KGFL/Lake George
Region and east of the southern Greens Mtns with the possibility
of the skies clearing or remaining clear with light to calm
winds. Lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s with pockets of
the southern Adirondacks in the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will continue shifting away from the area
slowly on Wednesday, moving towards Atlantic Canada by late in
the day. Most of the showers associated it with the upper level
low should be east of the region, although an isolated brief
shower can`t be ruled out over southern Vermont during the
afternoon hours. Otherwise, there should be more breaks in the
clouds compared to the last few days, with a partly sunny sky
over much of the area and temps reaching the mid to upper 70s in
valley areas, which will be noticeably warmer than the last few
days.

Dry and quiet weather is expected on Wednesday night as high
pressure builds into the area. Skies will be clearing out even
more and temps will fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s across
the region.

On Thursday, temps will be even warmer than Wednesday, as
warming temps aloft thanks to a south to southwest low to mid
level flow allows for 850 hpa to reach +14 to +16 C. Highs
should be well into the 80s across much of the area and
dewpoints will be creeping higher and getting close to 60 for
many areas by late in the day. Skies should be fairly sunny for
most of the area, although some clouds may start to increase by
late in the day, especially for western areas.

Upper level trough will be moving across the Great Lakes on
Thursday night and will be starting to approach the area.
Surface cold front will be making its way across the eastern
Great Lakes by the late night hours. Although the best forcing
will still be west of the area, western areas may start to see
some showers and thunderstorms impacting the area during the
overnight hours, although most spots should stay dry until
Friday morning. Otherwise, it will be mild and muggy on Thursday
night with lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface cold front will be making its way across the area on
Friday from west to east. Models have slightly sped up the
timing of the boundary, with the front crossing western areas
during the morning and reaching southeastern areas during the
afternoon. Ahead of the front, a warm and moist environment
should allow for some instability, with SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg
expected across southeastern areas. As a result, a line of
showers and thunderstorm is expected ahead of the front and any
thunderstorm will be capable of producing some gusty winds and
heavy downpours, as PWATs should be creeping above 1.50",
especially for areas south and east of the Capital Region. The
overall severe threat is somewhat uncertain due to the possible
earlier timing of the boundary. The recent fairly dry weather
and progressive nature of the precip should help mitigate the
overall flood threat as well, although can`t rule out any
ponding in low lying or urban areas. Temps will continue to be
fairly warm (in the 80s) ahead of the front as well.

Behind the front, somewhat cooler, less humid and drier weather
will return to the region for the weekend. High pressure will
keep dry weather in place for both Saturday and Sunday. Highs
will be in the 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to low 80s on
Sunday. There could be some cool weather on Sat night with good
radiational cooling in place with temps down into the 40s,
especially the high terrain.

Upper level ridging will be setting up along the eastern portion
of the CONUS for next week. Temps aloft will be warming quickly.
Some models (particularly the ECMWF) have been impressive with
the strength and orientation of the ridge. Both the 12z Euro
Ensembles/GEFS have shown decent chances for max temps to reach
above 90 degrees next week within valley areas. Will go with
valley temps nearing 90 by Monday and into the low 90s by
Tuesday, with the peak of the heat perhaps mid to late week.
There is some uncertainty, though, as disturbances passing along
the northern edge of the ridge could push the ridge south, so
it`s hard to put any high confidence on exact numbers on heat
or heat index values at this time. However, guidance certainly
is suggesting the potential for above normal warmth and it`s a
good time to review heat safety, as this could be potentially
needed next week. If ridging does develop as models suggest,
precip could be below normal, thanks to the strong subsidence
in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper disturbance producing a ceiling at around 5000-6000 feet
across much of the region. There are a few breaks in the clouds
but small and based on satellite imagery the holes in the
clouds are trending more to filling in rather than expanding.
The cloud cover should limit the potential for fog as the
surface will likely not get saturated but some of the holes
around KGFL could support some intervals of fog between about
09Z-12Z. VFR ceilings and visibilities after 12Z and through the
rest of the day and evening.

Variable winds at less than 5 Kt to near calm through mid
morning. Then south to west winds at less than 10 Kt late this
morning through afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night to Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Gant/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...NAS