864
FXUS61 KALY 150633
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
233 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be mainly dry and warmer, although it will be a touch
less humid than the past few days. Humidity returns Wednesday
and Thursday, however, with chances for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold frontal
passage Friday may be accompanied by some additional showers or
thunderstorms, but much cooler and drier weather is expected in
the wake of the front as we head into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Hot, humid conditions are expected for the middle of the week.
  Heat advisories will likely be needed for many valley areas
  Wednesday and Thursday.

Discussion:
As of 2:30 AM EDT...Convection from last evening that was
associated with an upper disturbance has moved off to the east
of our region, and we are mainly dry now. Behind this
convection, we have seen a lot of breaks in the mid and high
clouds, although there is fairly widespread low stratus and some
patchy fog across the region early this morning. Temperatures
are in the 60s to around 70. A slow-moving frontal boundary is
located near the ADKs and upper Hudson Valley now, and we should
see both temperatures and dew points continue to drop behind
this boundary through the remainder of the night. Lows will be
mainly in the 60s.

Today, ridging aloft amplifies and surface high pressure builds
in from the west. It will be quite warm under the building upper
ridge with highs in the upper 80s to possibly low 90s. However,
it will be less humid than the last few days. BUFKIT soundings
show very dry mid-level air that will likely mix down this
afternoon, especially from the Capital District northwards. We
therefore collaborated with several neighboring WFOs to drop
NBM dew points this afternoon. While dew points will probably
remain a little more elevated in the Mid Hudson Valley closer to
the frontal boundary, most areas are still expected to fall
just short of heat advisory criteria (95F for >2hrs). Today
should be mainly dry, except perhaps for a stray shower near the
I-84 corridor this afternoon near the front. It may also be hazy
today, with some Canadian wildfire smoke over our region,
especially in northern and western zones where the NYS DEC has
issued an air quality alert today. The surface high remains
overhead tonight, so temperatures should radiatively cool to the
respective dew points. Lows will likely be in the 60s for most
of the region, with some upper 50s possible in the ADKs. Patchy
fog is expected again tonight, especially in the river valleys
and for areas that saw appreciable rain over the past couple
days.

Wednesday...The surface high shifts off to our east, setting up
S/SW return flow and warm, moist advection as a warm front lifts
northwards. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer than Tuesday,
with low to possibly mid 90s for many valley areas. However,
increases in humidity will be more noticeable, as dew points
climb back into the low 70s for valley areas. Heat advisories
will likely be needed for most valley areas. Most of the day
Wednesday will be dry with ridging aloft and a capping inversion
in place, although a few showers or thunderstorms will be
possible in the late afternoon or evening across the Mid Hudson
Valley, Catskills, or Mohawk Valley.

Wednesday night...There is good agreement that an approaching
upper shortwave and modest low-level convergence at the nose of
a strengthening southwesterly LLJ will provide forcing for
ascent and cooling aloft that should allow for more numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop. Mid-level lapse rates
steepen Wednesday night, with showalter indices as low as -4.
Given that this will be overnight, the severe threat looks
relatively low with most of the convection remaining elevated.
That being said, we can`t totally rule out a couple instances of
gusty winds or hail with any taller updrafts. PWATs also remain
quite high at around or even over 2", so locally heavy rainfall
may be possible again, although storm motions should be faster
than they were the last couple days.

There are several questions surrounding the Thursday forecast.
Another, weaker upper impulse looks to track across the region
Thursday afternoon as a surface low tracks through southern
Quebec. Guidance shows a pre-frontal trough moving across our
region in the afternoon as well. If there is less convection
around Wednesday night and/or this convection ends early
Thursday morning, then we may have more showers and
thunderstorms to deal with during the afternoon. However, if
there is more remnant convection and cloud cover around Thursday
AM, this could limit the convective threat during the
afternoon. The airmass will be quite warm and muggy with quite a
bit of instability, so if any storms do develop Thursday
afternoon then we will have to monitor for a few to become
strong to severe. However, this is very much a conditional
threat, and confidence is fairly low at this juncture. AM
convection (or lack thereof) will also impact how warm we get on
Thursday. Nevertheless, with low to possibly mid-70s dew points
and temperatures at least in the upper 80s, there is a good
chance that heat advisories will be needed once again for many
valley areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Convection likely diminishes Thursday night with the loss of
daytime heating. It will remain quite warm and muggy with lows
in the 60s and 70s. Friday, the surface low tracks into
southeastern Canada, with the trailing cold front dropping south
through our area. Guidance has sped up the progression of this
front compared to previous forecasts. An earlier frontal
passage would limit the threat for additional showers and
thunderstorms. Low-level forcing also doesn`t look overly
impressive with the pre-frontal trough coming through on
Thursday, which may also limit convective coverage. Best chance
for showers and storms is towards the Mid Hudson Valley and
southwestern New England where there may be more time for
daytime heating and instability to build ahead of the
approaching front. We will still have to monitor for some
stronger storms as the shear looks better on Friday, but this
threat is once again a conditional threat, and we may very well
end up with little to no convection if the front continues to
trend faster.

Saturday through Monday...Saturday looks quite nice. High
pressure building in from the W/NW will bring dry weather,
cooler temperatures, and much lower humidity. Saturday night
will likely feature lows in the 50s to 60s. Sunday starts dry,
although we may have to watch for additional showers or storms
Sunday and Monday as guidance shows several upper impulses
tracking through broad zonal flow aloft over our area.
Temperatures currently look to remain fairly seasonable for
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...abundant low level moisture should allow
Cigs to drop to MVFR/IFR with areas of LIFR developing between
08Z-11Z/Tue. Cigs/Vsbys should become VFR between 12Z-14Z/Tue,
with VFR conditions prevailing through at least 02Z/Wed. Patchy
fog may produce intermittent IFR Vsbys toward 06Z/Wed at
KGFL/KPSF. Light/variable winds will become west to southwest at
4-8 KT by this afternoon, then will become light/variable
around/after sunset.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for NYZ032-033-038-042-083.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...KL