Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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905 FXUS63 KAPX 241333 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 933 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening/ tonight. - Rain likely Sunday night, showers continue into Memorial Day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 933 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 A bit of cirrus out there, especially in the south, but otherwise quiet this morning as we ramp up into the holiday weekend. A skinny ridge of high pressure over eastern MI is contributing to dry air at the low and mid levels. However, return flow is substantial w of Lake MI. All sorts of convection is seen out that way, especially in western WI and nw IL. Return flow aloft does start to work in here, but we have plenty of antecedent dry air to overcome. An initial push of showers toward nw lower MI from mid-afternoon onward should struggle mightily. Some small pops could be needed in our western areas before 8pm, but most precip will be after that. SPC has removed the MBL area from a marginal svr risk today/tonight. The morning has also started cool, though temps are quickly zipping into and thru the 50s. An easterly synoptic wind develops later today, as the ridge departs. That will keep max temps very near Lk Huron in the 60s. But everywhere else, 70s to low 80s (warmest in nw lower MI) will work. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level heights are currently rising across the western Great Lakes with a ridge axis progged to be centered squarely overhead by early afternoon. Attendant surface high pressure to follow suit today. All of this in advance of low pressure spinning well upstream across the Dakotas today into Manitoba tonight, eventually shoving high pressure east and dragging a warm and cold front/triple point across northern Michigan and a return of more active weather after sunset. Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated during the daylight hours today with lots of sunshine giving way to increasing high clouds this afternoon. Mild temperatures again today spanning the 70s and low 80s with generally light southerly winds and afternoon lake breeze development. By mid-late this afternoon, expecting a convective complex over WI to be making headway across central and northern Lake Michigan, albeit in quickly decaying fashion. Not expecting much of this initial activity to make it into northwest lower -- perhaps scraping the Manistee, Benzie, Leelanau shoreline, if anything at all. Better shower chances spread from southwest to northeast after 00z as warm/moist advection really ramps up evidenced by PWs progged to balloon to over 1.25" across the forecast area. Lowering/thickening clouds and increasing PoPs the rule this evening into the overnight hours with latest trends favoring 0.25 - 0.50" QPF near and west of Grand Traverse Bay to around a tenth to a quarter of an inch near and east of US-131. Suppose some embedded thunderstorms can`t be ruled out as well given upwards of 500 J/kg elevated instability folding into the region -- even some small hail not entirely off the table as well. That said, the primary severe weather threat looks to remain removed from northern Michigan today/tonight with the main focus across southern WI/northern IL this afternoon, perhaps extending into southwest lower Michigan this evening...all tied to better instability than what we`ll be able to muster locally. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Frontal boundary associated with low pressure system across N Plains will clear the region on Saturday ending any lingering precip chances. Brief high pressure early on Sunday, then a mess of energy swirls around the Great Lakes as a sfc low lifts into Lake Michigan/vicinity Sunday night into Monday. Another fast moving upper low swings down into Michigan during the middle portions of next week with some showers possible. Primary Forecast Concerns: Showers diminish on Saturday morning across much of the area, but may linger east of I-75 esp across the Lake Huron coast as a frontal boundary clears N MI. Next system approaches as a mess of upper level energy and a subsequent sfc low later Sunday into Monday. Maybe some minor instability, but nothing substantial in the latest guidance so largely thinking rain showers and possible embedded thunderstorms but will monitor this closely. Still a bit of uncertainty in this systems track but guidance (looking at ENS in particular but globals suggest this as well) is trying to hone in on a western sfc low track but this will ultimately depend on how a lead compact closed low/short wave progresses and interacts with the other messiness in the mid levels of the atmosphere. As of now, it does look like the steadiest rains will be Sunday night with showers remaining on Monday. Winds increase as well later Sunday into Monday. Despite the exact details, the weather will not be all that great for the holiday. Unsettled weather is possible into mid week with breezy conditions expected to continue. Another piece of energy, vigorous but likely moisture starved, swings down from Canada sometime mid next week (later Tues into early Wed likely) with another chance for showers. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 626 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR through the daylight hours today with increasing high clouds. Trends support thickening/lowering clouds along with associated increasing rain chances this evening/tonight. Probability for MVFR CIGs increases during this timeframe. Southerly breezes today with afternoon lake breeze development expected on both Lake Michigan/ Huron coasts. Southeast winds tonight with a bit of gustiness at times. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JZ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...MJG