Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
456 FXUS64 KBMX 051131 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 631 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2024 Moving through the day today we will see a cold front begin to work closer to the area, but will remain to our northwest through Thursday morning. The front will try to work into the area Thursday afternoon/night but probably will not make it too far into our northwest before Friday. Most of the showers and storms will be diurnally driven over the next two days. Depending on which piece and the strength of each little wave will determine the extent of coverage. For today, we may see an early wave of showers and perhaps a storm or two late morning into the afternoon. Then a second wave moving into the late afternoon and moving through early evening. A few models take the better coverage into the northwest, while others keep it in the south. Given the tendency of the last several wave, would expect a more souther approach. The timing of the front will be the big factor on Thursday. A more progressive push would get the front into the far northwest by 4 PM and keep most of the showers/storms south and east of Interstate 59. A slower run would keep the precipitation a little further north and allow the precipitation to continue through the early evening hours. For now will blend the trends and timing but have the best coverage in the south and eastern counties through the early evening. At this point organized severe weather appears low, but will need to monitor for small microburst each afternoon, with winds be the biggest player. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2024 The shortwave axis and best rain chances should be south and east of our area by late Thursday night/Friday morning. A cold front is expected to push southward through Central AL during the day on Friday, though model guidance continues to show this being a dry front with limited if any shower activity. Drier air advects into the region behind the front Friday evening leading to a mostly rain- free start for the weekend. The overall synoptic pattern with northwesterly flow aloft and weak ridging in the low levels will persist through the weekend into early next week. This means we`ll essentially be waiting for the next shortwave to slide through the main upper level trough. Current guidance suggests that this next wave, along with another boundary, will slide through Central AL sometime Sunday and may linger into Monday. There`s obviously a lot of unknowns about the timing of the next wave so rain/thunderstorms chances remain generally around 30- 40%, but this will likely increase for one period or another once the timing is resolved. We should see decreasing rain chances on Tuesday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2024 The models that developed the isentropic lift have verified so far but remain away from most sites. Added in some VCSH through the morning. More thunderstorms will move in from the west after 21z through 6z. Winds will be southerly at 5-10 kts through the afternoon and early evening. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... A warm and humid air mass will persist through at least Thursday before a frontal boundary moves through the area on Friday. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible each period through Thursday, with rainfree conditions expected Friday and Saturday. Minimum RH values remain above 50 percent Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, and falling into the 35 to 45 percent range on Friday. Southwesterly 20ft winds at 5-10mph continue Wednesday. 20ft winds become westerly Thursday and then northwesterly Friday, with speeds less than 10mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 89 67 88 63 / 60 70 40 0 Anniston 89 69 88 65 / 50 70 60 10 Birmingham 89 70 89 67 / 70 70 40 0 Tuscaloosa 89 70 90 68 / 70 70 40 0 Calera 89 70 89 68 / 70 70 50 0 Auburn 89 71 86 68 / 50 60 70 20 Montgomery 91 71 87 69 / 50 60 70 20 Troy 91 70 87 68 / 40 50 70 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...16