Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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876 FXUS64 KBMX 041817 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 117 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024 The remnant outflow boundary associated with the decaying MCS has moved from west to east across Central Alabama this morning, with two notable MCVs spinning across northern Alabama and southern Tennessee, as well as in Central Arkansas. Clouds have been slower to clear along and east of I-65 through midday, but will gradually mix out through the afternoon hours. Additional mesoscale boundary interactions, paired with continued upper level shortwave disturbances within easterly flow aloft will produce scattered to numerous storms as we go into the afternoon hours. The best chance for any severe storms will remain across the western and northwestern portions of Central Alabama where the best thermodynamics will exist. More than sufficient SBCAPE with Effective Bulk Shear of 25 to 35 knots and DCAPE values between 800 and 1000 certainly warrant a mention of isolated severe wind gusts. Steep lapse aloft were also noted on the 12z KBMX sounding this morning, and we`re already seeing development across eastern counties along another apparent mesoscale boundary. Although the best dynamics are in the west and northwest, an isolated severe storm across the entire area certainly can`t be ruled out. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the main hazards with the storms this afternoon through the evening as high temperatures reach the mid to upper 80s. Of course the big question as we go into the evening and overnight hours will be the potential for any convective complex of storms to develop and move east into the area from Mississippi. Currently, an MCS is moving southward in eastern Texas and northern Louisiana. The MCV present across Central Arkansas will certainly be the feature to watch as we go through the late afternoon and evening hours in terms of storm development that could impact our CWA. For now, confidence remains too low to include any higher than chance PoPs across the northern counties during the overnight hours. Muggy conditions are expected during the overnight with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Going into the day on Wednesday, we`ll see a more robust upper level shortwave diving into the Deep South as flow becomes northwesterly aloft. An additional complex of showers and storms will be possible Thursday afternoon as the shortwave passes through, with a surface front moving southward into Arkansas and Tennessee. While no mention of organized severe storms is currently being mentioned, strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be possible as these storms develop and move southeastward Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Before storms arrive, hot and humid conditions will be ongoing as highs reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024 A shortwave trough will be moving through the region Wednesday night through Thursday leading to a band of rain and thunderstorms across the area. The highest coverage of storms will likely be Wednesday evening before overnight stabilization decreases the coverage through Thursday morning. More thunderstorms will likely develop Thursday afternoon across the southeastern counties before the trough fully moves out of our area. A cold front will push southward through Central AL on Friday, but guidance hints that there may only be isolated showers/storms with the passage at best. For now, I don`t really have very high of rain chances at all on Friday - only carrying 15-20% chance across the far southern counties. However, it`s possible this could change in the next day or so as higher resolution guidance becomes available to get a better picture of the upper level moisture availability. The front is well to our south by Saturday, which will lead to dry conditions and mostly clear skies across the area. However, in this season/period of northwesterly flow aloft, our next shortwave is likely not far off. Models pick up on another wave sliding through the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley late Saturday into early Sunday, which could lead to another round of showers/storms Sunday into Monday, but the timing of when it moves into Central AL and produces the best chances for showers/storms is quite variable at this range, so probabilities are generally 30% both afternoons due to the low predictability. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024 VFR conditions are currently ongoing for all terminals with a few gusty surface winds reported between 15 and 20 knots. Those gusty winds shouldn`t last terribly long through the afternoon, but additional gusts certainly can`t be ruled out. Prevailing winds will remain around 10 knots from the south. Otherwise, scattered to perhaps numerous SHRA/TSRA will develop this afternoon through the evening hours. Although no prevailing TSRA has been mentioned thus far, amendments may be needed based on development and movement of storms through the evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing rapid reduction in visibility and variably gusty winds. TSRA/SHRA activity is expected to diminish overnight with low MVFR stratus development once again between 08z and 12z for most terminals. Low stratus is expected to mix out between 13z and 15z with VFR conditions returning through 18z Wednesday. NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been added for KASN due to errors with sensor equipment. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... A warm and humid air mass will persist through at least Thursday before a frontal boundary pushes into the region on Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today before becoming more widespread Wednesday. Generally light southerly flow is expected today before shifting westerly Thursday ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 89 67 88 / 30 40 70 30 Anniston 68 88 69 88 / 30 30 70 40 Birmingham 70 89 70 88 / 40 50 70 40 Tuscaloosa 71 89 71 89 / 50 50 60 40 Calera 70 89 71 88 / 40 50 70 40 Auburn 69 87 71 85 / 20 30 60 60 Montgomery 70 91 71 86 / 30 50 60 60 Troy 68 91 70 86 / 20 30 50 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56/GDG LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...56/GDG