789
FXUS64 KBMX 040857
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
357 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 711 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain over Central Alabama
early this evening. These storms were forming mainly due to small
scale boundary interactions. Brief gusty winds or small hail is
possible in the strongest storms. Otherwise, would expect a
downward trend in the storm coverage from 8pm-4am. A thunderstorm
line was located in far eastern Arkansas into Louisiana. This
activity will continue eastward overnight. How much convection is
still present along the line late tonight is still in question.
But this boundary will approach west and northwest areas near the
Mississippi state line just before daybreak. An upper trough will
move over the area along with some convectively induced vorticity
maximums. Therefore, rain/storms will have higher probabilities
Tuesday. Some storms may be strong with brief gusty winds and
small hail. Made some adjustments to the pops and general trends,
but it appears the overall message is still valid through Tuesday.

Early Tuesday morning, low clouds and some fog will be possible.
Local areas may experience visibility drops before the clouds and
fog lift by 9 am.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

Scattered convection has developed along an outflow boundary in
eastern MS, with thunderstorms expected to meander into western
Alabama through the afternoon. CAMs are not handling this
convection well, so confidence remains low on extent of
development this afternoon. Enough instability is over the state
for diurnal convection this afternoon, with a greater
concentration in the central and western portions of the state
where instability is higher. PW values are max for this time of
year so any stronger shower and thunderstorm will produce high
rain rates.

Overnight, an area of thunderstorms is expected to move into
western Alabama in the early morning hours, and lasting through
the early morning. Confidence is low on timing and coverage, but
any activity will produce high rain rates and lightning. Diurnal
activity will be quick to develop by mid day as plenty of
moisture and instability remains over the state. A few areas in
the east and south could see fog development in the early morning.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024

A shortwave trough will be moving through the region Wednesday night
through Thursday leading to a band of rain and thunderstorms across
the area. The highest coverage of storms will likely be Wednesday
evening before overnight stabilization decreases the coverage
through Thursday morning. More thunderstorms will likely develop
Thursday afternoon across the southeastern counties before the
trough fully moves out of our area.

A cold front will push southward through Central AL on Friday, but
guidance hints that there may only be isolated showers/storms with
the passage at best. For now, I don`t really have very high of rain
chances at all on Friday - only carrying 15-20% chance across the
far southern counties. However, it`s possible this could change in
the next day or so as higher resolution guidance becomes available
to get a better picture of the upper level moisture availability.

The front is well to our south by Saturday, which will lead to dry
conditions and mostly clear skies across the area. However, in this
season/period of northwesterly flow aloft, our next shortwave is
likely not far off. Models pick up on another wave sliding through
the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley late Saturday into early Sunday, which
could lead to another round of showers/storms Sunday into Monday,
but the timing of when it moves into Central AL and produces the
best chances for showers/storms is quite variable at this range, so
probabilities are generally 30% both afternoons due to the low
predictability.


25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024

We currently have a deteriorating convective complex over MS
approaching AL state line. Clouds tops have warmed on satellite.
Lightning activity has decreased greatly and is now basically
SHRA. The bowing feature from earlier has deteriorated as well.
As a result, the near short term will be SHRAs for TCL and toward
sunrise for BHM/EET. By mid morning the remnants will be near
ASN/ANB. Don`t expect much activity for MGM/TOI until later in the
afternoon with heating. There is also the threat of another
convective complex of storms reaching the MS/AL state line late
this afternoon which could bring TSRA to TCL after sunset if it
pans out. Outside of convection, MVFR stratus is expected to
develop over the next couple of hours. A few areas could go down
to IFR as well. Conditions should rebound to VFR 15-16z S to
16-18z N areas.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will persist through at least Thursday
before a frontal boundary pushes into the region on Friday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today before
becoming more widespread Wednesday. Generally light southerly
flow is expected today before shifting westerly Thursday ahead of
the approaching frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     82  67  88  67 /  80  40  70  70
Anniston    83  68  88  69 /  80  30  60  70
Birmingham  84  70  89  70 /  80  40  60  70
Tuscaloosa  86  71  89  71 /  60  40  60  60
Calera      84  70  88  71 /  80  30  60  70
Auburn      85  69  87  71 /  50  30  40  60
Montgomery  85  70  90  71 /  40  30  50  60
Troy        86  68  91  70 /  40  30  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...08