403
FXUS64 KBMX 061157
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
657 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2024

Radar coverage has really picked up over the past hour as showers
and an isolated storm develop along an outflow boundary from last
evening`s MCS. The remnant MCV is spinning across the northwest.
Look for showers and storms to continue to develop along this
outflow through the morning and into the afternoon. As the front
moves through this morning and afternoon, there may be just enough
lift to generate another round of showers and storms along the
front. Looks like the best coverage will be ahead of the front so
trended with the higher PoPs across the south and east through the
afternoon. Lingering showers and storms in the area through 10 PM
then the drier air filters in across the area. While widespread
severe weather is not expected, we may see storms in the southeast
pulse closely to marginally severe status.

After midnight we will begin to see some clearing from north to
south. There could potentially be some pockets of fog before the
drier air works in. For Friday we will see more sunshine as high
pressure moves in behind a second front. With the added sunshine,
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, but with much
lower humidity levels.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2024

Drier air will be in place on Saturday as the northerly flow allow
for more of a continental air mass. Temperatures will likely still
rise into the upper 80s to low 90s. Another frontal boundary pushes
southward into TN Valley and eventually into Central AL Sunday
night through Monday, which will lead to increased
rain/thunderstorm chances. However, with the drier air mass in
place ahead of the boundary, there are some questions on the
moisture return and therefore coverage of convective activity.
Tuesday into Wednesday appear to be dry for now with the frontal
boundary stalled to our south.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2024

An area of showers and storms developed this morning along an
outflow in place across the area. Most of the rain/storms have
moved east of the northern sites and will slide the southern sites
by 14z.Rains have just about ended for now, although some
isolated to scattered showers will likely develop closer to
sunrise. Additional aras of rain/storms will develop across the
south and east by 15z and will likely impact MGM and TOI for much
of the day. Areas to the north will see better rain chances after
18z as the front begins to enter the area. Rain chances really
drop off after 00z and then should be south of the area by 3z.


16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A frontal boundary moves through the area today through tomorrow
morning. Showers and storms are expected today with rainfree
conditions expected Friday and Saturday. Minimum RH values remain
above 50 percent this afternoon, and falling into the low 30%
range by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  63  85  58 /  50  10   0   0
Anniston    86  65  86  59 /  60  20   0   0
Birmingham  87  66  87  61 /  40  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  89  67  88  61 /  30   0   0   0
Calera      87  67  88  62 /  50  10   0   0
Auburn      84  69  88  63 /  70  30   0   0
Montgomery  86  69  90  62 /  60  30   0   0
Troy        86  68  90  62 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...16