363
FXUS64 KBMX 131739
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024

Heights are rising today in advance of a large 596dm ridge over
the Desert Southwest. The ridge is progged to move eastward across
Texas tomorrow producing a warm and dry north to northeast flow
across Central Alabama. There is a small chance of a shower or
storm this afternoon, mainly east of I-65, resulting from weak
surface convergence associated with easterly surface flow from
high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region, but chances are
generally less than 20 percent. That`s about it in terms of rain
potential as the focus turns towards the rising heat levels. Highs
will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s this afternoon with
overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Plenty of sunshine is
expected again tomorrow as 1000-850mb thicknesses continue to
rise, suggesting highs in the mid to upper 90s. Those with heat
vulnerabilities will need to begin taking extra considerations
tomorrow as heat indices will reach 100F for many locations.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2024

A hot weekend is in store for Central Alabama, with near record
highs through Sunday. A 592 dm ridge will be parked over the
southern states over the weekend. With light surface winds and
mostly sunny skies, temperatures will top out in the mid to upper
90s both days. A few spots may touch 100F on Saturday. Afternoon dew
points in the upper 60s will yield heat index values up to 105F
Saturday and 100-103F Sunday. If trends hold, a Heat Advisory may be
considered for Saturday. With lows Friday night through Sunday night
remaining in the low to mid 70s, little relief will be provided
before temperatures climb again the next day. This will require more
caution than usual for heat-sensitive group or those with prolonged
outdoor activities over the weekend.

There is a chance for some thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon,
currently forecast over southern and eastern counties. Each
afternoon from Monday through Wednesday will feature area-wide
chances for thunderstorm activity. Highs will be in the low to mid
90s.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024

A strong ridge is beginning to build over the region, so VFR
conditions are expected to persist for much of this TAF period.
There is the small possibility of some short-term fog developing
early tomorrow morning, mainly at the northern TAF sites, which
could produce limited visibility until it mixes out after sunrise.
Surface winds remain light and variable.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There is a slight chance for a few showers or storms across
eastern Alabama this afternoon, with no rain currently forecast
for Friday and Saturday. 20-foot winds should average less than 7
mph with directional variability through the weekend. Afternoon
minimum RHs are expected to remain above critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  95  69  98 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    68  95  71  97 /  10   0   0  10
Birmingham  70  96  73  98 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  68  97  72  99 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      70  96  73  99 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      71  95  74  97 /  10  10   0  10
Montgomery  71  97  73  99 /  10   0   0  10
Troy        70  97  72  99 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...86/Martin