365
FXUS64 KBMX 060115
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
815 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER... Issued at 812 PM CDT WED
JUN 5 2024

Well-defined shortwave trough over Mississippi spawned an MCS with
several bowing segments moving across Central Alabama. Effective
shear of 25kts and DCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg has resulted in
damaging winds as it moves through. One particularly well-
organized bowing segment may have produced one or two brief
tornadoes in our northwest counties. Weakening has been noted on
the southern edge of this system, but it will continue to pose a
damaging wind threat for the next 1 to 2 hours over our northeast
and east-central counties.

32/Davis

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2024

A frontal boundary will slowly approach the area from the
northwest today through Thursday. Models haven`t handled timing or
coverage of convection well with this pattern, so confidence is
slightly lower this afternoon. However, scattered convection is
expected to develop to the west of the state and move north and
east this afternoon and into the evening. Instabilities in areas
along and south of I65 can be as high as 2000 to 2500 with weak
shear and PW values max for this time of year. Thunderstorms could
become strong with high rain rates and gusty winds a threat.

Activity should move fairly quickly, but if any training sets up,
localized flooding could be a concern in one or two areas.
Otherwise, there may be a break in the late night and early
morning, though those details are too uncertain to include in the
grids for now. Will go ahead and advertise scattered convection
continuing off and on through the night with an expected decrease
in intensity overnight as instability decreases.

On Thursday, as the frontal boundary approaches and moves through
the state, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
throughout the day, with a decrease in coverage from the
northwest to the southeast as the frontal boundary moves through.
Instability is expected to be slightly less on Thursday and though
thunderstorms are expected, the intensity and coverage should be
less than this afternoon and evenings convection.

Temperatures today are a couple of degrees below guidance with
mostly overcast skies. Temperatures tomorrow will be several
degrees below normal in areas south of I20 and west of I65 where
cloud cover is expected to linger longer into the day.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2024

No significant changes in the extended this afternoon, with models
continuing to show a dry end of the week. The next shortwave
arrives early Sunday, with a series of impulses providing
opportunities for rain through Tuesday.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2024

The shortwave axis and best rain chances should be south and east of
our area by late Thursday night/Friday morning. A cold front is
expected to push southward through Central AL during the day on
Friday, though model guidance continues to show this being a dry
front with limited if any shower activity. Drier air advects into
the region behind the front Friday evening leading to a mostly rain-
free start for the weekend.

The overall synoptic pattern with northwesterly flow aloft and weak
ridging in the low levels will persist through the weekend into
early next week. This means we`ll essentially be waiting for the
next shortwave to slide through the main upper level trough. Current
guidance suggests that this next wave, along with another boundary,
will slide through Central AL sometime Sunday and may linger into
Monday. There`s obviously a lot of unknowns about the timing of the
next wave so rain/thunderstorms chances remain generally around 30-
40%, but this will likely increase for one period or another once
the timing is resolved. We should see decreasing rain chances on
Tuesday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move eastward this
evening with gusty winds. Showers and storms will persist through
the overnight hours into tomorrow though with low confidence on
placement as a front moves into the area. Highest chances for
thunderstorms Thursday will be at the southern terminals. MVFR
cigs are also expected to develop overnight with some localized
IFR possible.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will persist through at least Thursday
before a frontal boundary moves through the area on Friday.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible each period
through Thursday, with rainfree conditions expected Friday and
Saturday. Minimum RH values remain above 50 percent Thursday
afternoon, and falling into the 35 to 45 percent range on Friday.
20ft winds become westerly Thursday and then northwesterly Friday,
with speeds less than 10mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  84  64  84 /  80  40   0   0
Anniston    68  83  65  86 /  70  50   0   0
Birmingham  68  86  68  86 /  80  40   0   0
Tuscaloosa  68  87  69  88 /  90  30   0   0
Calera      67  84  69  88 /  80  40   0   0
Auburn      67  80  69  87 /  50  70  10   0
Montgomery  69  84  69  88 /  60  70  10   0
Troy        69  81  68  90 /  40  70  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...32